Tuesday, November 1, 2011

EUR/USD 1,3677

The EUR/USD is plunging across the board since the Asian session, passing by the European opening and now the American. During the European session, the pair was using the 61.8% Fib from Jan-9 low as a support area, but the American session opening led the pair down to 1.3649.

At the moment of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.3682 and remains bearish, according to FxMarketAlerts Team: “It seems NY specs are behind the latest round of spot losses in EUR/USD and AUD/USD, though this will come as little surprise as they react to the news of the Greek vote of confidence, but more ominously the referendum on the new bailout package. This is effectively a vote on Euro zone membership, and has been duly taken as such, with EUR/USD looking to improve on the lows set at 1.3675 thus far".

On the upside, 1.3723 (session high) and 1.3829 (100-H4 MA), followed by 1.3900 (psychological level) may offer resistance at those areas. On the downside, support may be found at 1.3678 (200-H4 MA), followed by 1.3649 (daily low) and 1.3582 (Oct-12 low).

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, October 31, 2011

AUD/USD challenging 1.0600 resistance

After sliding 200 pips and bottoming out at 1.0503 early European session, the Australian Dollar found support and rebounded, trimming losses versus a broad-based strong Greenback.

AUD/USD bounced from the 1.0500 psychological level and rose over 100 pips toward a session high of 1.0610 before losing steam. At time of writing, the pair is quoting at the 1.0590/1.0600 zone, still down 1.0% on the day.

In terms of technical levels, if the pair manages to take out the 1.0600 area, next resistances could be found at 1.0650 and the 1.0700/10 area, while on the other hand supports might be faced at 1.0540, 1.0500 and then 1.0460.

source: fxstreet.com

Saturday, August 27, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4498

Heading into the final hours of the trading this week, EUR/USD holds barely below 1.4500, recording a 0.79% gain on the day and the week.

The pair continued to seesaw back and forth inside its recent 1.4000/1.4500 range, although this week it held above 1.4300 and quoted nearer the topside, peeping briefly above 1.4500 on Friday boosted by a solid rally in US equities after Fed's Chairman stopped short of signaling further monetary stimulus in Jackson Hole.

Bernanke finally did not announce a third round of QE during his speech in Jackson Hole, but he didn't ruled it out either, shifting focus to September 2-day FOMC meeting.

Regarding the week ahead, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, commented, "The return of full market volume during early September may trigger some wild movements in the cross, although I would expect the 1.40/1.45 range to hold. Neither Euro nor Dollar, will gather enough strength to define a trend anytime soon".

source: fxstreet.com

Saturday, August 6, 2011

S&P Cuts U.S Rating To AA+' From AAA

Despite Friday's bounce, EUR/USD is on track to close the week with losses for second time in a row as investors flied to safety favoring safe-haven assets over higher-yielding currencies over the last days.

On Friday, better-than-expected July NFP report coupled with media reports saying the European Central Bank will buy Italian bonds brought some relief to financial markets a day after Wall Street suffered its worst decline since February 2009.

EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.4260 area, up 1.2% on the day but still 0.83% below its Monday's opening. The pair had hit a weekly high at 1.4453 on Monday and a low of 1.4054 during Friday's Asian session on the back of ECB's dovish comments.

source: fxstreet.com

S&P Cuts U.S Rating To AA+' From AAA, Outlook Negative

WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Taking into account the political risks and increasing debt-burden, Standard & Poor's on late Friday downgraded U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch to 'AA+' from 'AAA' with a negative outlook. The country has been enjoying the triple A rating for the last 70 years.

The firm also removed both the short and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative as the government's passing of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 in August 2 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default. S&P also affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

Announcing the downgrade, S&P said that America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what they previously believed. The agency described the statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default as a 'political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.'

Further, S&P rating services said, 'The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to, falls short of what would necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.'

According to reports, Obama administration accused the downgrade as a result is sloppy mathematics and politically tainted assessment and said the calculations overstated future spending of $2 trillion.

The firm also warned that it could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years in case of lower-than agreed spending reduction, interest rates hike, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt.

The rating agency is of the view that the near-term progress in public spending or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely given the prolonged controversy over raising the U.S. debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate.

'The difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging,' the firm said.

Lifting the nation's borrowing limit would represent a short-term solution to the U.S debt problem. The agency has cautioned last month that a deal including drastic spending cuts may hamper the still-fragile economic recovery.

On the S&P action, the Capital economists noted that the deficit reduction package of $2.4 trillion over ten years that was signed into US law last week did not meet the $4 trillion that S&P had hoped for. They expect that the S&P rate downgrade will rock the financial markets on Monday but any spike in Treasury yields and/or fall in the dollar would be relatively short-lived.

Under the baseline upside macroeconomic assumptions of S&P, net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74 percent of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77 percent in 2015 and to 78 percent by 2021. Under the revised downside scenario, the rating agency is of the view that the net public debt burden would rise from 74 percent of GDP in 2011 to 90 percent in 2015 and to 101 percent by 2021.

The agency also noted that the government debt burden will likely be higher by 2012 and called for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure over the 10 years through 2021.

Copyright RTT News/dpa-AFX

Sunday, July 31, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4399

The Euro finished on Friday around the same price level it opened Monday’s Asian session against the Dollar and ended July with a small monthly loss far from the lows.

EUR/USD jumped on Friday after the release of week economic data in the US and recovered from weekly lows at 1.4230, reaching levels above 1.4410. The pair erased weekly losses but it was unable to hold above 1.4400.

Next week will be important for markets observers: the debt ceiling in the US will be reach, the ECB and the BoE will decide on monetary policy and next Friday, the big employment report will be published in the US including the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.

These events are likely to increase volatility in the market and particularly in the EUR/USD. The Euro could come under pressure once again if the market turns its attention from the debt ceiling crisis toward the EU debt crisis, pointed out Ilian Yotov, FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex.

“The probability that the euro will reach over 1.4696 next week is extremely high, the probability that it will move above 1.4748 though is very low,” said Lara Iriarte, Director and Technical Analyst at ElliottWaveForex on its forecast. According to her the EUR/USD should find a high between those levels before turning to the downside for a new strong trend.

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, July 25, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4378

The Euro weakened in the market after the opening bell at Wall Street. EUR/USD broke below 1.4355/60 and fell to 1.4335, level that is located just 10 pips above daily lows. If it falls below 1.4320 it would be trading at the lowest level since last Thursday, when the European Council announced measures to address the European debt crisis.

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com, affirms: “Lacking definition, hourly chart shows indicators flat around their midlines, while price hovers around and also flat 20 SMA. 4 hours chart shows a slightly bullish tone as per a strong 20 SMA heading north, yet only above 14440, past week high, the pair may resume its bullish tone.”

The Euro also weakened versus the Swiss Franc and reached a fresh 6-day low. EUR/CHF fell to 1.1518, rebounded and currently trades above 1.1530.

source: fxstreet.com

Thursday, July 14, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4217

Euro recovery from 4-month low at 1.3835 on Tuesday extended sharply yesterday, to regain all the ground lost last week, reaching 1.4280 on early Asian session, to consolidate below here in Europe, with downside attempts contained, so far at 1.4165.

Resistance levels are 1.4280 (day high/100-day MA), and above here, 1.4370/75 (Jul 7/8 highs) and 1.4465 (Jul 6 high). On the downside, the pair has found support at 1.4165 (20-hour MA), below ere, next potential support levels lie at 1.4130 (intra-day level) and 1.4035 (intra-day level).

Technical indicators show that the pair has set a bottom at 1.3835, according to Slobodan Drvenica, analyst at Windsor Brokers: "Strong rebound from 1.3836, 12 July low, exceeded our barrier at 1.4200, to extend gain to 1.4281 so far, just under Fib 61.8% retracement of 1.4576/1.3836 downleg. This confirms temporary bottom at 1.3836 and turns near-term focus higher."

source: fxstreet.com

Thursday, June 30, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4488

Euro rally from 1.4100 extended yesterday to multi-week highs past 1.4500, to reach level close to the top of a converging range, at 1.4540, which, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, could open the doors for a retest of 1.4732.

Above the top of the current consolidation range, at 1.4540, the pair wold aim towards 1.4732, says Jones: "We are inclined to view the market as ranging/consolidating ahead of a break lower. However should 1.4540 be cleared we must allow for a retest of 1.4732, the 78.6% retracement."

On the other hand, failure at 1.4540 could precede a retest to 1.4119, according to Jones: "Failure at 1.4540 will see a retest of the 1.4119 support line which is regarded as the break down point to the 200 week ma at 1.4017, the 1.3968 recent low and the 200 day ma at 1.3871."

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, June 27, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4293

The Euro has edged higher against the Greenback on Monday, helped by hopes that the Greek parliament could pass austerity measures when it votes later in the week.

EUR/USD reached a peak at 1.4293 in recent trade after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said French banks have agreed to roll over holdings of Greek debt for 30 years. However, EUR/USD has moved slightly off highs and it is currently quoting at the 1.4270 zone, where it records a 0.56% gain on Monday, the first in 4 days.

"On technical perspectives, EUR/USD is entrenched in a symmetrical formation. A pick of volatility expanded intra-day support and resistance levels", said Andrei Tratseuski, analyst at Forex Club. "Current resistance hovers at 20-day Moving Average of 1.4350. Support is currently structured at the low of the day at 1.4100".

 source: fxstreet.com

Friday, June 24, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4188

Weak global economic data and uncertainty about Greece’s short-term liquidity problems are weighing on the market suggesting more downside risks for the EUR/USD, according to what analysts at the Danske Bank wrote in its weekly report. Risk will probably persist at least until the next ECB meeting on July 7 says the report. “We would wait for lower levels to position for the relative rates driven rebound in EUR/USD that we still expect during the summer.”

source: fxtreet.com

Thursday, June 23, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4159

The Dollar bounced up strongly yesterday against its main rivals, and rallied sharply over the last session favoured by the Federal Reserve, which showed a downbeat economic outlook for the US, trimming GDP growth expectations for 2011 to 2.7/2.9% from previous 3.1/3.3% and hammering market sentiment.

The Greenback has surged across the board over the latest sessions, especially against the GBP, which was capped at 1.6265 high on Wednesday's London session, and dropped all the way to fresh 12-week lows at 1.5980 so far today.

EUR/USD recovery from last week lows at 1.4070 was peaked yesterday yesterday at 1.4440, right ahead of Fed's statement, and the pair has remained depreciating since, reaching 1.4215 low so far.

USD/JPY Bounced up at 80.00 low yesterday and strengthened after Fed's statement, to breach 80.35 resistance area and hit week highs at 80.65 level, which is being eroded at the moment.

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, June 20, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4370

EUR/USD recovered from the 1.4190 area, where the pair bottomed out during the European session and rose over 140 pips propelled by an improvement in market sentiment amid European assurances that a solution for Greece will be reached.

“Euro is seeing some strength today against the United States Dollar as market is beginning to believe in a resolution of Greek debacle. The situation is simple to resolve it seems, Greece will get additional funds of €12 Billion by mid-June only if they agree to stricter austerity measures. By showing complacency regarding austerity measures, Greece might further advance its own cause of further bailouts. In turn Greece will refrain from defaulting. Bearing the following premise in mind, market participants are becoming optimistic and bidding up the Euro,” said Andrei Tratseuski, from Forex Club.

However, EUR/USD found resistance at the 1.4325 area and has spent the last hours consolidating into a tight range just below that level. At time of writing, the pair is quoting at the 1.4310 zone, 0.23% above its opening price. On the upside, if the Euro manages to extend gains beyond highs, next resistance might be found at 1.4335, while immediate supports could be faced at 1.4190 and 1.4150/60.

source: fxstreet.com

Friday, June 17, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4308

Analysts at the Commerzbank forecast that the EUR/USD will likely trade at 1.50 at the end of the 3Q and at 1.45 by the end of the year. According to them the US Dollar is likely to remain under pressure as the Fed go on with its ultra-expansionary policy. The Euro could suffer repeated sharp, but brief moves triggered by rounds of EMU debt crisis but “otherwise, EUR-USD should continue to trend upwards in the short to medium run.”

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4447

Euros gained strength yesterday and once we broke 1.4385 we have carried on higher for the next resistance level of 1.4445.

According to Carol Harmer, Chief Analyst and Founder at Charmer Charts: "We may well find a small amount of sellers waiting around 1.4440/45 area and they will try and drive us lower back through 1.4385 to 1.4325 area."

She expands: "Around 1.4385/1.4325 zone, buyers will be waiting thus sellers are advised to cover all shorts to here. We would expect this lower support level to hold and for buyers to come back into the market and try and hold this up."

The British Analyst concludes: "Now as stated you have resistance at 1.4445/57. If then we break above 1.4460 we are expected to rise further with 1.4540/55 then the targeted area."

source: fxstreet.com

Sunday, June 12, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4349

On the BNP Paribas weekly report, Clemente De Lucia affirmed that the ECB will continue its tightening cycle as inflation is on the rise and the bank will use it standard instrument: key rates to keep inflation in line with price stability in the medium term. “An unbalanced recovery and persistent tensions in financial markets will induce the ECB to proceed in its tightening cycle at a modest pace. Apart from anything else, the strong euro has the effect of tightening monetary and financial conditions, reducing the need for higher rates.”

According to De Lucia the differences between monetary policy in the US and in Europe are widening yield spreads, strengthening the euro that “is likely to remain at elevated levels for a while (the OECD estimate of fair value is around 1.25, based on PPP for GDP), before easing next year when the Fed is expected to start its own tightening cycle.”

source: fxstreet.com

Saturday, June 11, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4349

EUR/USD is about to close the week recording an impressive loss after 3 weeks with gains. The pair has erased within the last 3 days the gains accomplished last week as it failed to break above 1.4700 on Wednesday and plummeted more than 350 pips.

During Friday's American session, the pair accelerated to the downside amid risk aversion and continuing concerns about the Greek debt crisis, dropping over 180 pips or 1.2% and breaking through several support levels to reach the lowest price since June 2 at 1.4322. However, EUR/USD has managed to bounce from lows, back above the 1.4330 zone which represents the 50% retracement of its last rally and at time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting at the 1.4340/50 region.

The hegemonic currency is the worst performer this week, having fallen 4 out of the 5 trading days against the Greenback, and it is on track to close Friday 1.81% below its Monday's opening. Against the Yen, the Euro is 1.64% down on the week.

source: fxstreet.com

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4410

EUR/USD is seeing some profit-taking as Europeans try and square up at the end of their day. We probed above 1.4450 barriers and the 50% Fibo of the drop from 1.4940 but were unable to hold those levels. We trade now at 1.4410. Bids are eyed in the 1.4395/1.4405 area; small stops are seen around 1.4390. Large stops are seen below 1.4360 if the pullback starts to snowball...

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, May 30, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4289

Euro recovery from last week lows at 1.3970 halted at 1.4335 on early Asian session, -10 pips shy of May 20 high- and weighed by faltering risk appetite, the pair pulled back in Asia, dipping below 1.4300 to hit session lows at 1.4255 ahead of the European opening.

Below 1.4255 (day low), the pair might find support at 1.4185/00 (May 26 high/day low), and 1.4065 (May 26 low). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.4300 (intra-day level), and above here, 1.4335/40 (day high/May 20 high) and 1.4425/40 (May 9/11 highs).

Technically, the pair lies at an important price area, according to Alberto Muñoz, analyst at FXstreet.com: "In the case of EURUSD, a strong close above 1.4300 would indicate we will have a bullish rally in the next days. On the other hand, a close below 1.4200 would mean the market is going to test recent lows."

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4105

Market's mood has flipped to risk-off again at mid American session, with commodities and stocks reversing earlier gains while currencies linked to commodities are retreating from session's highs against the Greenback.

The bounce of AUD/USD was capped by the 1.0580 resistance area during the NY session forcing the cross to pullback toward the 1.0530 zone where the fall was contained. At time of writing, AUD/USD hovers around 1.0540/50, 0.40% above its opening price while gold has retreated from $1527 an ounce to trade barely above $1520/oz.

The Loonie is also losing ground against the Greenback as oil erases previous gains. Crude for July has fallen to $98.50 a barrel after peaking at $100. USD/CAD has moved in sync to the upside, halting at the 0.9790 area where it is little changed since opening.

NZD/USD has backed away from 0.8014 where it set a fresh 3-week high and currently is trading around 0.7960.

source: fxstreet.com

Friday, May 20, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4167

The hegemonic currency faced another sell-off round after Fitch rating agency downgraded Greece from BB+ to B+ and after Norway suspended a EUR 25 million grant to Greece as this latter did not fulfill commitments and may have broken rules. The Norway's Foreign Ministry also said in a statement that Greece has to explain how the funds have been spent.

High volatility amid low volume persists in the FX market this Friday while commodities and stocks are reversing early losses.

EUR/USD sank below 1.4200 and hit the lowest price in 3 days at 1.4138 on the news, although it found strong support and has managed to trim part of today's losses. EUR/USD has recovered around 50 pips within the last hours and currently is testing the 1.4190/1.4205 area, former support, now resistance.

If the cross manages to break above, stops around 1.4210 could be trigger, exposing next resistance at the 1.4250 zone, while on the downside, below 1.4140, 1.4120/25 and 1.4050 are further support.

source: fxstreet.com

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4245

The Euro bounced up from 1.4120 low yesterday to regain lost ground in US session and breach 1.4250 resistance during Asian trade, to stall below 1.4285 during European session, with previous resistance area, at 1.4240/50 offering support so far.

Immediate resistance lies at the mentioned 1.4285 (day high), above here, 1.4340 (May 13 high) and 1.4425 (May 11 high). On the downside, support levels are 1.4230/40 (day lows), and below here, 1.4125 (day low) and 1.4080/85 (intra-day support).

On the longer-term, Ron William, technical strategist at MIG Bank, warns about a bearish engulfing pattern on the monthly chart, which threatens the bullish move of the previous 5 months: "1.4125 (day low), and below here, 1.4080/85 (intra-day support)."

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4209

Greenback lost momentum across the board as stocks recover ground in Wall Street. EUR/USD rose more than 60 pips in the last hour climbing back above 1.4200.

The pair soared after hitting a daily low at 1.4120 and reached a new high at 1.4235. To the upside the Euro might face immediate resistance around 1.4245 where yesterday’s high lie.

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, May 16, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4126

Euro recovery from Friday's low at 1.4045 is a mere correction, meant to be capped below 1.4190, according to Stoyan Mihaylov, technical analyst at Deltastock.com, before next leg downwards, towards 1.3730.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4119

The Euro was the worst performer among majors in the market for the second week in a row. EUR/USD fell 270 pips after plummeting 520 pips on the previous week. The pair reversed sharply on Friday and tumbled from 1.4340 and bottomed at 1.4065, hitting a 6-week low. The European currency finished on Friday hovering around 1.4100 weakened by risk appetite and worries about debt problems in Greece.

“The Euro has been moving in lock-step with equities recently (as well as oil) and so the risk-off trade was in full effect as the EUR/USD fell through the 1.41 area. With lingering concerns about what happens with Greece yet to be decided by EU members, traders do not want to hold EUR”, said Nick Nasad, fundamental analyst at FXtimes.

Regarding Eurozone debt problems, the Danske Bank affirmed in its weekly report: “Greek finances seem unsustainable, and the risk of restructuring – which could lead to losses in the European banking sector and a sell-off of EUR – is ever-present. However, our euro economists expect further loans to be extended to Greece, so avoiding or at least deferring such a scenario”. They anticipate some normalization of the EUR risk premium in the coming months. “In this context, it should also be noted that our short-term model for EUR/USD, which is based partly on relative interest rates, gives an equilibrium exchange rate above 1.46”.

source: fxstreet.com

Thursday, May 12, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4224

The Euro was rejected yesterday at 1.4425, and the pair fell sharply on US session, breaking below 1.4270, which according to Stoyan Mihaylov, technical analyst at Deltastock.com, confirms the end of the corrective recovery from 1.4253, reactivating the downtrend towards 1.4020 support area.

source: fxstreet.com

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

GBP/USD 1,6394

Pound's retreat from 1.6420 high yesterday found support at 1.6315 on US session, and the pair picked up , to consolidate between 1.6345 and 1.6385 during Asian session, half way through the weekly range.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.6385 (session high), and above here, 1.6405/20 (May 9/10 highs), and 1.6465 (May 6 high). On the downside, below 1.6445 (session low), next support levels lie at 1.6315 (May 10 low) and 1.6270 (May 9 low).

Technical indicators suggest intraday upside moves for today according to the ecPulse.com, technical team: "Stochastic provided positive signals support the intraday upside move today; the upside move requires b breaching 1.6455 and stability above 1.6300."

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4373

Euro retreat from Asian session high at 1.4375 has found support 100 pips lower at 1.4270, and the pair bounced back favoured by the positive opening of European markets, regaining previous losses and returning to 1.4375.

On the upside, above 1.4375, the pair might find resistance at 1.4440 (May 9 high) and 1.4575/90 (May 6 highs). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.4250/70, (May 9 low/day low), and below here, 1.4200 (April 18 low) and 1.4155 (April 17 low).

EUR/CHF found support at 1.2485/00 area to bounce up strongly at European session opening, surging about 130 pips to test resistance at 1.2630, which so far, remains intact, as the pair pulled back top 1.2570/80 area.

source: fxstreet.com

Sunday, May 8, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4320

The EUR/USD suffered one of the worst 2-day loss in history. The pair traded at 1.4900 on Thursday and finished the week around 1.4350. The decline started with Trichet words singling that the ECB is not going to raise rate in the next meeting and on Friday, rumors about Greece leaving the Eurozone accelerated the decline.

The pair bottomed in the last day of the week at 1.4313, 620 pips below weekly highs reached on Wednesday at 1.4933 when it traded at the highest level in 17 months. The Euro was the worst performer during the week among majors.

In the Eurozone, Greece denied that it is considering leavening the euro. There were also speculations about a debt restructuration. “Pending the substantiation of this speculation, the euro will remain under pressure; but it will also hold off from a major run”, said Senior Currency Strategist from Daily FX, John Kicklighter.

A confirmation that Greece intends to leave, would send the euro sharply lower according to the Daily FX analyst. “Alternatively, putting to rest this speculation could lead to a temporary bounce that unwinds this morning’s losses. However, that doesn’t mean that it will recover any more ground than that; as traders now realize that the market is highly sensitive to concerns over the region’s financial stability”, Mr. Kicklighter added.

“The euro sell-off could continue on further position unwinding – especially if the correction in commodity prices runs further – and even lower levels in EUR/USD in the short term cannot be ruled”, analyst at the Danske Bank wrote in a report before the Greece news hit the wires. They concluded that in the short term the pair could continue to go lower if the indications that the global economy is slowing down spreads to equity markets, but they still see the underlying trend for a higher EUR/USD. “Hence, on the back of ECB hikes and easy monetary policy in the US, we will look for attractive levels to reposition for renewed upside”.

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4775

Euro rally was capped yesterday at 1.4900, fresh 16-month highs, and the pair moved back from severely overbought stochastics, according to Carol Harmer, technical analyst at Charmer Charts, suggesting the possibility of further retracement over the coming sessions.

The pair, coming up from lows at the moment of writing, is expected to remain capped by 1.4885/00, which according to Harmer, offers a good selling opportunity: "Short term we are looking oversold, but this is to be expected given the move lower from 1.4900, so we may well see s small bounce early in the session, and this would give us a chance to re-sell this market. We look to sell at around 1.4885/1.4900 and we would only stop ourselves out if we broke the 1.4925 area."

On the mid term, the pair remains overbought, prone to a pull back, according to Harmer, who points out to 1.4585 and 1.4560 support levels: "However, we are overbought on the med term charts and therefore this is alerting us to the market taking a bit of a tumble. 1.4585 to 1.4560 offers us support and we look to cover shorts to here."

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, May 2, 2011

European markets rise on Bin Laden's death

European markets have opened the week on a positive tone rising to their highest level in the last two months, buoyed by Bin Laden's death and better than expected manufacturing activity figures in the EU. In currency markets, Euro and Pound pick up after Asian session's Dollar rally.

Eurostoxx 50 Index rises 0.3%, while the German DAX Index advances 0.8% and the French CAC Index adds 0.35%. In the UK, the FTSE Index remains practically flat two hours after the opening bell.

Appetite for risk has increased on Asian session following news of Bin Laden's killing by a CIA operation in Pakistan, and boosting hopes for the resolution of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In the macroeconomic front European Manufacturing PMI increased to 58.0 in April from 57.5 in March, beating experts expectations of a weaker increase to 57.7.

Dollar giving back gains

EUR//USD retreated from 1.4865 high on Asian session, following news of Bin Laden's killing, to find support at 1.4760, and pick up on early European session, to regain 1.4800 reaching 1.4825 area at the moment of writing

GBP/USD recovery from 1.6620/25 low on Friday was capped at 1.6740 on Asian session, and the pair dropped to 1.6640 after Bin Laden death, to bounce up on early London session, reaching 1.6700.

USD/JPY dipped to fresh one-month lows at at 81.00 on early Asian session, and the pair bounced up stronly following Bin Laden's death, to stall at 81.70 right below Friday's high.

source: fxstreet.com

Saturday, April 30, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4805

The EUR/USD rose posting one of the biggest weekly gains since the beginning of the year. The pair broke above 1.4650 on Tuesday and reached at 1.4881 on Thursday the highest price since December 7, 2009. On Friday it pulled back but managed to hold above 1.4800.

According to Danske Bank analysts the EUR/USD got strong support from the dovish message that Ben Bernanke delivered in its historic press conference on Wednesday underlining “the clear monetary divergence between the Fed and the ECB”. “We are now approaching our 3M forecast of 1.50, but further upside could be in the pipeline as the ECB maintains its hawkish tone while the Fed stays dovish”, analysts said .

On a monthly basis the pair jumped in April, rising 650 pips and posted the fifth monthly gain in a row.

source: fxstreet.com

Friday, April 29, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4840

Euro recovery from yesterday's low at 1.2750 has been capped at 1.2960/65 resistance area, and the pair has pulled lower, forming another "double top" at the mentioned 1.2960, according to Fan Yang, technical analyst at FXTimes.

The pair has formed a "double top" pattern, according to Yang, activated below 1.2910: "The recent from 1.28 has met resistance at 1.2960. During today’s European session, a double top is forming with a break below the 1.2910 support."

On the downside, the pair targets 1.2800 says Yang: "As the market has been bearish from 1.3250, the bearish outlook is inline with the prevailing trend. Looking at the internal structure of the sideways channel seen in the 4H chart, a wave equality target is at 1.28."

source: fxstreet.com

Thursday, April 28, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4798

Rebound from Tuesday's low at 1.4490 extended yesterday, on Dollar weakness after Bernanke showed its commitment to maintain interest rates near zero, and the pair rose to fresh 16-month highs at 1.4885, to consolidate above 1.4825 during the European session.

On the downside, below 1.4825 (session low), the pair might find support at 1.4770 (day low) and 1.47155 (intra-day level). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.4880 (day high), and above here, 1.4905 (Dec 7, 2009 high) and 1.5000 (psychological level).

EUR/JPY bounced on Tuesday at 118.50 low, and the pair rallied yesterday and on early Asian session today, to reach fresh 2-week highs at 121.80 and pill back to 120.80 low during the European session.

source: fxstreet.com

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4673

Euro bearish correction was contained yesterday at 1.4500 area, and the par resumed the upside on Wednesday reaching fresh one-year highs at 1.4715, with scope to extend higher this session, according to Carol Harmer, technical analyst at CharmerCharts.

The pair faces resistance at 1.4715/30, according to Harmer, with next targets, above here, at 1.4760 and 1.4785: "We do have some resistance at 1.4715/30 and today we will either look to buy dips down to 1.4630/25 or buy a break of 1.4730. If we do break the 1.4730 resistance we should be able
to trade higher with 1.4760 to 1.4785 the targeted area."

On the downside, Harmer points out to key support level at 1.4625: "Now if we cannot hold over 1.4625 we should see a small retracement with 1.4585 then looking to entice."

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4684

The Euro consolidates right beneath its fresh 16-month high against the Greenback, awaiting the conclusion of the 2-day Fed's meeting.

EUR/USD jumped to a high of 1.4656 earlier during the American session, boosted by the risk appetite surrounding the markets. However, the shared currency has been unable to make any progress above that level. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.4630, posting a 0.36% daily gain.

The FXMarketAlerts team commented, "Current consolidation phase may last into tomorrow but we doubt we have seen an important top yet. Support is at 1.4575/85 then 1.4545. Above 1.4651 next significant target is at 1.4680".

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,4617

Euro pullback from 1.4650 high last Thursday has found support at 1.4490/00 on early Asian session, and, after a brief period of consolidation, the pair has bounced higher on European session, rallying about 150 pips to reach 1.4650 area.

On the upside, above 1.4650 (Apr 21 high/session high), the pair might find resistance at 1.4700 (psychological level) and then at 1.4730/50 area (daily and weekly pivot point resistance). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.4490 (day low), and below here, 1.4400 (20-day MA) and 1.4325 (Apr 20 low).

EUR/GBP pullback from 0.8850 high on Monday has found support at 0.8810 on early Asian session, and the pair Bounced higher on European session, reaching 0.8880 resistance area, under pressure at the moment of writing.

source: fxstreet.com 

Monday, April 25, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4611

The US dollar remains weak and is extending losses across the board. EUR/USD has risen around 0.46% on Monday and within the last hour hit a 2-day peak at 1.4626. The cross holds near a 16-month high set last week at 1.4648.

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com said, "Euro bullish momentum is not even close to give up, with the pair accelerating higher and approaching to 1.4645 past week high and roof of the daily ascendant channel, coming from February 14th".

"With 4 hours chart showing a strong 20 SMA acting as dynamic support and momentum turning flat above its midline while RSI picks up, a break above mentioned level should signal at least a continuation towards the 1.4680/1.4710 price zone", said Bednarik. "The movement will mostly be limited by lack of volume rather than lack of strength".

"Support now comes at 1.4600, yet only below 1.4580, we can see a retest of the 1.4525 lows", she concluded.

source: fxstreet.com

Sunday, April 24, 2011


Majors kicked off a new trading week virtually unchanged from past Friday's closing levels. Varies financial centres will remain close this Monday, fact that will most likely contribute to a slow session.

EUR/USD trades at 1.4557, revitalized after the strong bounce off 1.4150 lows earlier last week. GBP/USD remains firm at 1.6520. USD/JPY continues to be capped by 82.00, currently at 81.80. AUD/USD hovers around 1.0750.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4557

This week, better than expected “first quarter earnings helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest level in over three years. The upbeat earnings announcements overshadowed somewhat lackluster housing market data released during the week,” according to the Wells Fargo Research Team.

Still and regarding Europe, they add: “Greek and Portugal yield spreads climbed to record levels this week and the cost of insuring these bonds against default increased to all-time highs. Fears of a debt restructuring have fueled the recent increases” however, “for now, at least, the debt markets appear to be keeping the sovereign debt panic contained. Spain and Italian debt is performing quite a bit better, though these markets are under some pressure as well. The Spanish 2-year note yield is at 3.46 percent, while the Italian 2-year is holding at around 3.05 percent”.

source: fxstreet.com

Friday, April 22, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4555

The Euro is losing ground over the past hour, retracing from a daily high at 1.4585 to make a quick comeback towards its opening price at 1.4550. At the time of writing, price is hovering around 1.4560.

In the Asian session, the pair showed a moderate positive tone but that was not enough for Euro bulls to break though the 50% fib retrac. from yesterday's pullback.

Further downside pressure may send the price towards 1.4540 ahead of key support at 1.4520. A break down beyond this latter level seems unlikely. On the upside, resistance can be found at 1.4585, today's high. Above, 1.4645 high will get exposed again.

source: fxstreet.com

Thursday, April 21, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4566

Stocks rose in the US, reaching fresh multi-year highs. Optimism arising form corporate earnings managed to offset weak economic data. Among currencies the Dollar lost ground once again across the board but managed to recover ground during the American session, ending the day off session lows.

The DOW gained 0.42%, posted the third consecutive increase and finished for the second day in a row at the highest level since June 2008 at 12,505. The NASDAQ and the S&P 5000 ended up 0.63% and 0.53% respectively. All the stock indexes finished the week higher. Tomorrow US and European stock markets will be closed. Gold climbed to new record highs for the fifth consecutive session and peaked at $1,508.

Dollar repeats yesterday’s performance
Greenback fell across the board on Thursday but during the American session trimmed losses in the market, rebounding from daily lows. The EUR/USD pulled back below 1.4600 to 1.4530, erasing most of it gains, but still able to end with mild gains.

The Pound rose in the market supported by upbeat UK economic data. Despite being unable to rise above 1.6600, GBP/USD finished on top of 1.6500, posting the highest daily close since December 2009.

The Swiss Franc reached once again new record highs against the Dollar, confirming its uptrend. The Kiwi and the Aussie finished higher against the Dollar, after reaching multi-year highs. The Loonie also climbed to a multi-year high but weakened considerably in the market on American hours, falling sharply across the board.

source: fxstreet.com

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4520

The Euro has risen sharply during the last two days to retrace the whole decline from last week highs and reach fresh year highs at 1.4550 where, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, the pair could fail. and retreat to 1.4100 area.

Jones advices to allow for failure at 1.441.4445/1.4535 resistance: "EUR/USD has seen a strong recovery and looks set to retest the 1.4445/1.4535 resistance (1995 high), where we would again allow for failure. Initial support lies at 1.4130, the 23.6% retracement of the move higher seen this year. However we suspect that we will see the Euro sell off to 1.4021, the end of March low."

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4286

Euro went through one of its sharpest sell off in several months yesterday, plummeting almost 300 pips on the day to reach fresh 2-week lows at 1.4155, were the pair found support to pick up over the last sessions, returning to 1.4300, to test resistance at the broken trendline support from January lows.

Above the mentioned 1.4310, the pair might find resistance at 1.4365/75 (Apr 12/14 lows) and 1.4425 (Apr 18 high). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.4245 (previous day high) and below here, 1.4200 (day low), and 1.4150 (Apr 5/18 low).

EUR/GBP retreat from 0.8925 high on April 13, extended on Monday to a fresh 8-day low at 0.8740, and the pair has been trimming losses on Tuesday's Asian and European sessions returning to 0.8795 high so far.

source: fxstreet.com

Sunday, April 17, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4384

EUR/USD Current price: 1.4409. Euro opened the week slightly lower, following past Friday's weakness, and testing at the time of writing the 1.4415 area.

While the ECB is determinate to keep fighting inflation with rake hikes, the sovereign debt jitters continue: Greece continues to be on default risk, and protests had arisen over the weekend.

"Technically, hourly chart has a bearish perspective, with indicators heading south below their midlines, and 20 SMA above current price with a nice bearish slope and acting as dynamic resistance", said Valeria Bednarik, analyst at FXstreet.com.

"Still above 1.4400, 4 hours chart also holds a bearish tone that can weight on the pair over the next hours: 1.4365, past week low, is now key support to break", Bednarik said.

Support levels: 1.4400 1.4365 1.4320. Resistance levels: 1.4440 1.4470 1.4510.

source: fxstreet.com

Saturday, April 16, 2011



Words fail me!

EUR/USD 1,4432

The Euro fell on Friday against the Dollar and posted a small weekly decline. The EUR/USD reached fresh 14-month highs on Tuesday around the 1.4520 region that become a strong resistance zone capping the upside on the subsequent days.

The European currency moved in a 170 pips range between the highest and the lowest price of the week, after rising more than 250 pips in the previous one. The pair failed to make a daily or weekly close above 1.4500 and finished the week hovering below 1.4450.

Analysts at the Danske Bank continue to warn that based on differences in monetary policy between the Fed -that remains dovish- and the ECB -that has already raise rates- the EUR/USD “still point to the upside”. They expect the EUR/USD to trade at 1.50 in three months, at 1.50 also in six months and at 1.40 in 12 months “as the market begins to price in the first Fed hike”.

source: fxstreet.com 

Thursday, April 14, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4489

Long term bullish trend in the common currency seems to be unbeatable, as after falling to 1.4365, the Euro is back up, reaching fresh US session highs and approaching to 1.4500. Sovereign debt woes had return to the table over the past two days, yet rate differentials weight more right now, favoring Euro against major rivals.

Having reached 1.4490 by the time of writing, immediate resistance lays at 1.4520, past Wednesday daily high, followed by 1.4550 area, January 2010 strong congestion zone. Supports now, are located at 1.4460, intraday static area, followed then by 1.4415 price zone.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,4419

The Euro has been hammered across the board on European session, hit by renewed concerns about debt issues among several EU members, after the German Finance Minister hinted to about the possibility of debt restructuring in Greece.

EUR/USD recovery from 1.4405 was capped at 1.4515, right below one-year high 1.4520, to plunge about 130 pips lower during European session reaching day low levels at 1.4385.

EUR/GBP was capped at 0.8880 and the pair plunged on European session to 0.8820 low. EUR/JPY recovery from 120.20 low in Asia halted at 121.35, and the pair plunged about 160 pips to 119.70 low.

The Euro has been swept away by renewed debt fears, triggered by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who affirmed yesterday that Greece might have to go through a debt restructuring process, which has boosted the prices of Greek bonds.

source: fxstreet.com

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4505

EUR/USD tried to break higher but faltered just prior the level of 1.4535 at 1.4520 on Tuesday, and edged lower to current levels around 1.4475 where it has been consolidating most of the Asian session.

According to Carol Harmer, analyst at CharmerCharts, the medium term charts show the pair in quite dangerously overbought territory, so a pullback could be expected. However, she thinks above 1.4535 the bullish move could resume, "Only then would the market shrug off these overbought indicators leaving buyers to take us higher for 1.4635", Harmer said.

On the downside, she locates support at 1.4450, "A loss through here keeps the sellers in a strong position and we should be able to drive this lower to more manageable levels of 1.4385/75 and possibly 1.4350".

source: fxstreet.com

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4479

The Euro fell more than 50 pips in 60 minutes and trimmed gains. The EUR/USD retreated sharply after hitting at 1.4517 the highest price in 14 months following Wall Street opening, accelerating the downside below 1.4500. The decline found support around 1.4435 and currently the pair is trading above 1.4450.

Despite the recent slide the common currency is still gaining on a daily basis against the Dollar and holds more than 85 pips above Asian session lows.

Technically speaking, according to Andrei Tratseuski from Forex Club, intermediate resistance hovers at 1.4675 “represented by 127.1% Fibonacci extension of major high and major low as well as the highest level reached in 2010” while to the downside current support lingers at the first standard deviation at 1.4375.

source: fxstreet.com

Monday, April 11, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4439

The Euro found support at 1.4415/20, daily low, and gained momentum after Wall Street opening, and recovered ground. The pair rose to 1.4465/70, where it found resistance. The EUR/USD currently trades around the same price levels it had at the beginning of the day.

“Still and despite short term bullish, long term trend remains intact in the pair” said Valeria Bednarik, collaborator at FXstreet.com. According to her, the pair needs to break below 1.4410 to accelerate the decline on Monday.

Despite holding above 1.4420 against the Dollar, the Euro is trading at fresh lows versus the Swiss Franc. The EUR/CHF failed to hold above 1.3100 and at the moment trades at daily lows at 1.3095.

 source: fxstreet.com

Friday, April 8, 2011

EUR/USD 1.4483

Despite traders seem to have left early this weekend, and forex market seems already close due to the lack of volume, EUR/USD holds steady near the 15-month high set today at 1.4545. While usually on Friday’s following a week with large gains as euro posted this one are days of profit taking and at least contrarian corrective movements, investors seem to expect fresh highs for the upcoming week.

According to Fan Yang from FXTimes, 1.5140 target might open un next week, if the pair manages to overcome the 1.4500 price zone. As he says, “the EUR/USD is heading into a zone of heavy resistance, but seems unabated so far”, adding that mentioned 1.4500, represents the 200% extension of an inverted Fibonacci. He finally adds: “We should not consider the bearish outlook until a break below 1.4250. Correction from 1.45 might turn into sideways action between 1.4250 and 1.45”.

source: fxstreet.com