Monday, December 3, 2012

Greece has unveiled the details of its bond buyback plan

Greece has unveiled the details of its bond buyback plan, ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Monday. According to the document released by the Public Debt Management Agency, private investors are given the chance to swap the Greek bonds their hold for between 40.1% and 32.2% of their nominal value.

The bond buyback, on which Greece is prepared to spend 10 billion euros, is subject to a financing agreement with the EFSF, which provides funding for it. Prices of bonds vary by maturity: 38.1c for 2023, 30.2 for 2042. Investors can sign up for the buyback until December 7, while the settlement is scheduled for December 17.

The debt swap plan plan is a part of the bailout package for Greece, agreed upon at the Eurogroup meeting last week. The release of the next, 44 billion euro aid for the indebted country depends on its successful completion.

Friday, November 9, 2012

EUR/USD 1,2705

Having traded through the 1.2738 Fibonacci retracement yesterday, Commerzbank analysts await a close below this level to signal that another leg lower is underway. “This is expected to be seen shortly following the recent break down from a symmetrical triangle. The triangle break down point is expected to offer resistance at 1.2881 and we would expect prices to be contained by the near term downtrend at 1.2938”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to a downside measured target to 1.2483 (from the triangle 1.3172-1.3103) and other one at .2472 (61.8% retracement), while supports are at 1.2738 then 1.2605 (38.2% and 50% retracements).

“It should be noted that the triangle took 6 weeks to complete and this target should be achieved by year end, however it is often done so much quicker in half the time”, Jones added, expecting the EUR/USD to reach 1.2483 by the end of this month.


Sunday, October 21, 2012

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Friday, October 19, 2012

USD/CAD beneffiting from Google TD Securities

TD Securities analysts believe the “risk off” undertone today is a resumption from yesterday's after Google's much weaker than expected earnings. “The CAD was one of the main casualties of yesterday’s late moves and it remains a notable under performer against a generally mixed USD today”, wrote analysts Shaun Osbourne and Greg Moore, allowing more CAD weakness on risk aversion.

Today's focus goes to the Canadian CPI: “Higher headline inflation is expected but core and, especially, seasonally adjusted measures are expected to show more moderate price gains”, thy added, pointing to more CAD weakness on weaker than expected data.

The pair has already got back to the high 0.98 area and trades around the 40-day MA and trend channel resistance again. “A firm close on the week—in the upper 0.98s at least would be technically constructive”, state TD Securities analysts, pointing to a break above 0.9885 to allow gains towards 0.9950.


Sunday, May 6, 2012

EUR/USD 1.3080

The Euro's decline against the Dollar from 1.3175 seems to have found support at the 1.3080 after falling around 100 pips in the American session on the back of rumours about Greece leaving the area and next election in the Hellenic country and France.

After supporting at 1.3080, the EUR/USD has been trading in a slight recovery to teach levels close to the 1.3100 zone. Currently the pair is trading at 1.3090, 0.45% below today's opening price action. Pair remains "Strongly Bearish" and "Overbought" according to Technical Studies.

The single currency is being hammered just after the European close on rumours about certain Spanish banks insisting on another round of LTRO (LTRO3) and unconfirmed sources talking about the likeliness of Greece exiting the bloc.


Thursday, May 3, 2012

The market was pricing expectations of a possible lower interest rate today, but the ECB has kept it at 1%, adding that the central bank’s officials didn’t discuss the rate at all today: “Those comments fell short of expectations for more dovish ECB language or indication that the central bank was moving closer to further easing”, wrote Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Bank, pointing to the rebound of the euro, also helping the CHF and NOK.

“ECB President Draghi said the inflation risks were broadly balanced and that risks to the economic outlook were to the downside, while he also said the central bank did not discuss a rate cut at today’s meeting”, Bennenbroek added.

In the US, initial and continuing jobless claims surprised the market with a 27k and 53k drop, respectively, now at a total of 365k and 3.276M. Falling productivity by -0.5% in Q1 (YoY) and rising labor costs by 2% were also revealed today.


Friday, April 27, 2012

EUR/USD 1,3246

Equity markets retraced losses and are edging higher on a new risk tone after digesting the Spanish rating downgrade to BBB+ by the S&P agency and the higher unemployment rate at 24.4%. The EUR/USD also bounced from its lows at 1.3157 in mid-European session and rallied up above the opening price of 1.3223 to print its high at 1.3243.

Since then, the pair has been stabilizing around the opening price, with some upside pressure as the NY session is ahead with the US GDP data due at 12:30 GMT.

“1.3250 area is providing near-term resistance for EUR/USD. We feel the euro should be sold into rallies ahead of next week’s key economic data and political events, including PMIs, ECB meeting, and the ongoing political cycle”, wrote BBH analysts headed by Marc Chandler.


Tuesday, April 24, 2012

EUR/USD 1.3191

Risk sentiment continues to improve and the EUR/USD is getting closer of retracing yesterday’s losses. The American session rally pulled the pair from the opening price at 1.3155 to print a new high at 1.3218.

At the moment of writing, the EUR/USD is holding at the psychological level at 1.3200.

“A decisive close below 1.3000 is required to unlock the important multi-month reversal pattern into 1.2625 (16 Jan swing low). Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3228 (20th April high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3460-1.3497 (200-day average)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Howard Friend.


Tuesday, April 3, 2012

EUR/USD 1.3320

In quiet pre-Easter trade, EUR/USD remains trapped inside past days' range with focus on the release of the US FOMC minutes to the March meeting later on the session.

EUR/USD peaked at 1.3366 during the European session but couldn't sustain gains and turned lower to hit a fresh day's low of 1.3300 into the North American return. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting at the 1.3310 zone, where it is little changed since opening.

As for technical levels, the analyst team sees immediate supports at 1.3290, 1.3250 and 1.3190, while they place resistances at 1.3370, 1.3385 and then at 1.3485.


Monday, April 2, 2012

EUR/USD drops below 1.3300

The Euro accelerated losses against the Greenback early American session, extending its decline from a 1-week high of 1.3380 to levels below 1.3300, as comments from Fed Fisher talking down the prospects of further easing has helped to lift the USD.

EUR/USD has lost nearly a hundred pips within the last hours, breaking below the 1.3310 support level to hit a low of 1.3282 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the cross is quoting at 1.3287, 0.5% below its opening price.

In terms of technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.3270, 1.3250 and 1.3215, while resistances could be faced at 1.3310, 1.3350 and 1.3380.


EUR/USD 1,3296

EUR/USD climbed to a 1-week high of 1.3380 during the European session, but found strong resistance and was once again rejected from that area, sliding toward 1.3335 before finding support. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting at the 1.3345 area, 0.1% below its weekly opening price.

Despite several attempts within the last couple of weeks, EUR/USD has been unable to clearly overcome the 1.3380/85 zone which has been keeping the upside limited.

From a technical view, "The 4 hours chart shows indicators flat above their midlines, while price develops above 20 SMA with no much strength either side of the board", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at"The upside seems quite limited, and unless an acceleration above 1.3400, more gains seem unlikely; however if above, 1.3485 is next".

To the downside, Bednarik notes that the 1.3310 floor needs to give up to see the pair extending its slide near 1.3270.

Monday, January 23, 2012

EUR/USD 1,3032

The EUR/USD is moving away from the highs toward 1.3000. So far the Euro has been able to hold above 1.3000 but it retreated from 1.3052 and fell to 1.3002.

At the moment of writing the pair is hovering around 1.3010 as the US Dollar gains momentum across the board and trims daily losses. The pair still remains in positive territory headed toward the second daily close above 1.3000 since the beginning of 2012.

The Euro also moved off session highs versus commodity currencies and against the Pound as reports mentioned that the Eurozone and the IMF are not going to increase the bailout loan to Greece.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

EUR/USD 1,2648

While markets await confirmation of the reported euro zone downgrades by Standard & Poor's, which includes France losing its AAA rating, EUR/USD consolidates losses near the bottom of today's range heading into the last hours of trading in Wall Street.

EUR/USD slumped to a fresh 16-month low of 1.2623 on the downgrade talk, and despite a limited bounce attempt it was unable to overcome the 1.2700 mark, and has spent the last hours consolidating below that level. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting around 1.2660, where it records a 1.2% loss on the day, having reversed its weekly gains to trade 0.3% below its Monday's opening.

Recently, French FinMin Baroin has confirmed France has been warned it will be downgrade by 1 notch to AA+, Le Monde reports. An official Standard & Poor's statement is expected around 21:00GMT.