Wednesday, January 30, 2013

EUR/USD 1,3561

After the extended upside seen from 1.3485, with the breach of the 1.3500 mark signaling an open market for the upside, the EUR/USD found its high at 1.3561 before European traders going for lunch. Ahead comes the most awaited events of the day, the ADP employment and the US GDP, while the FOMC meeting will likely be a non-event.

Commerzbank analyst Lutz Karpowitz said that “if the ADP comes in surprisingly favorable (i.e. clearly above 200,000), the BLS might be “adjusted” this month”, and added that strong ADP figures today would be a positive signal for Friday’s labor-market report. Karpowitz is pessimistic about the US GDP: “After a growth rate of 3.1% (annualized rate) in the third quarter, we expect very subdued figures. The consensus expects growth of 1.1% (annualized) and our economists are even more pessimistic (+0.8%)”.

“A decisive break of the strong resistance 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) would open the way for a move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the rise from 1.2043 to 1.3172 and by the retracement to 1.2662)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar, pointing to another strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).

Monday, December 3, 2012

Greece has unveiled the details of its bond buyback plan

Greece has unveiled the details of its bond buyback plan, ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Monday. According to the document released by the Public Debt Management Agency, private investors are given the chance to swap the Greek bonds their hold for between 40.1% and 32.2% of their nominal value.

The bond buyback, on which Greece is prepared to spend 10 billion euros, is subject to a financing agreement with the EFSF, which provides funding for it. Prices of bonds vary by maturity: 38.1c for 2023, 30.2 for 2042. Investors can sign up for the buyback until December 7, while the settlement is scheduled for December 17.

The debt swap plan plan is a part of the bailout package for Greece, agreed upon at the Eurogroup meeting last week. The release of the next, 44 billion euro aid for the indebted country depends on its successful completion.

Friday, November 9, 2012

EUR/USD 1,2705

Having traded through the 1.2738 Fibonacci retracement yesterday, Commerzbank analysts await a close below this level to signal that another leg lower is underway. “This is expected to be seen shortly following the recent break down from a symmetrical triangle. The triangle break down point is expected to offer resistance at 1.2881 and we would expect prices to be contained by the near term downtrend at 1.2938”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to a downside measured target to 1.2483 (from the triangle 1.3172-1.3103) and other one at .2472 (61.8% retracement), while supports are at 1.2738 then 1.2605 (38.2% and 50% retracements).

“It should be noted that the triangle took 6 weeks to complete and this target should be achieved by year end, however it is often done so much quicker in half the time”, Jones added, expecting the EUR/USD to reach 1.2483 by the end of this month.


Sunday, October 21, 2012

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Friday, October 19, 2012

USD/CAD beneffiting from Google TD Securities

TD Securities analysts believe the “risk off” undertone today is a resumption from yesterday's after Google's much weaker than expected earnings. “The CAD was one of the main casualties of yesterday’s late moves and it remains a notable under performer against a generally mixed USD today”, wrote analysts Shaun Osbourne and Greg Moore, allowing more CAD weakness on risk aversion.

Today's focus goes to the Canadian CPI: “Higher headline inflation is expected but core and, especially, seasonally adjusted measures are expected to show more moderate price gains”, thy added, pointing to more CAD weakness on weaker than expected data.

The pair has already got back to the high 0.98 area and trades around the 40-day MA and trend channel resistance again. “A firm close on the week—in the upper 0.98s at least would be technically constructive”, state TD Securities analysts, pointing to a break above 0.9885 to allow gains towards 0.9950.