Wednesday, January 30, 2013

EUR/USD 1,3561

After the extended upside seen from 1.3485, with the breach of the 1.3500 mark signaling an open market for the upside, the EUR/USD found its high at 1.3561 before European traders going for lunch. Ahead comes the most awaited events of the day, the ADP employment and the US GDP, while the FOMC meeting will likely be a non-event.

Commerzbank analyst Lutz Karpowitz said that “if the ADP comes in surprisingly favorable (i.e. clearly above 200,000), the BLS might be “adjusted” this month”, and added that strong ADP figures today would be a positive signal for Friday’s labor-market report. Karpowitz is pessimistic about the US GDP: “After a growth rate of 3.1% (annualized rate) in the third quarter, we expect very subdued figures. The consensus expects growth of 1.1% (annualized) and our economists are even more pessimistic (+0.8%)”.

“A decisive break of the strong resistance 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) would open the way for a move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the rise from 1.2043 to 1.3172 and by the retracement to 1.2662)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar, pointing to another strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).