Thursday, June 30, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4488

Euro rally from 1.4100 extended yesterday to multi-week highs past 1.4500, to reach level close to the top of a converging range, at 1.4540, which, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, could open the doors for a retest of 1.4732.

Above the top of the current consolidation range, at 1.4540, the pair wold aim towards 1.4732, says Jones: "We are inclined to view the market as ranging/consolidating ahead of a break lower. However should 1.4540 be cleared we must allow for a retest of 1.4732, the 78.6% retracement."

On the other hand, failure at 1.4540 could precede a retest to 1.4119, according to Jones: "Failure at 1.4540 will see a retest of the 1.4119 support line which is regarded as the break down point to the 200 week ma at 1.4017, the 1.3968 recent low and the 200 day ma at 1.3871."


Monday, June 27, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4293

The Euro has edged higher against the Greenback on Monday, helped by hopes that the Greek parliament could pass austerity measures when it votes later in the week.

EUR/USD reached a peak at 1.4293 in recent trade after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said French banks have agreed to roll over holdings of Greek debt for 30 years. However, EUR/USD has moved slightly off highs and it is currently quoting at the 1.4270 zone, where it records a 0.56% gain on Monday, the first in 4 days.

"On technical perspectives, EUR/USD is entrenched in a symmetrical formation. A pick of volatility expanded intra-day support and resistance levels", said Andrei Tratseuski, analyst at Forex Club. "Current resistance hovers at 20-day Moving Average of 1.4350. Support is currently structured at the low of the day at 1.4100".


Friday, June 24, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4188

Weak global economic data and uncertainty about Greece’s short-term liquidity problems are weighing on the market suggesting more downside risks for the EUR/USD, according to what analysts at the Danske Bank wrote in its weekly report. Risk will probably persist at least until the next ECB meeting on July 7 says the report. “We would wait for lower levels to position for the relative rates driven rebound in EUR/USD that we still expect during the summer.”


Thursday, June 23, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4159

The Dollar bounced up strongly yesterday against its main rivals, and rallied sharply over the last session favoured by the Federal Reserve, which showed a downbeat economic outlook for the US, trimming GDP growth expectations for 2011 to 2.7/2.9% from previous 3.1/3.3% and hammering market sentiment.

The Greenback has surged across the board over the latest sessions, especially against the GBP, which was capped at 1.6265 high on Wednesday's London session, and dropped all the way to fresh 12-week lows at 1.5980 so far today.

EUR/USD recovery from last week lows at 1.4070 was peaked yesterday yesterday at 1.4440, right ahead of Fed's statement, and the pair has remained depreciating since, reaching 1.4215 low so far.

USD/JPY Bounced up at 80.00 low yesterday and strengthened after Fed's statement, to breach 80.35 resistance area and hit week highs at 80.65 level, which is being eroded at the moment.


Monday, June 20, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4370

EUR/USD recovered from the 1.4190 area, where the pair bottomed out during the European session and rose over 140 pips propelled by an improvement in market sentiment amid European assurances that a solution for Greece will be reached.

“Euro is seeing some strength today against the United States Dollar as market is beginning to believe in a resolution of Greek debacle. The situation is simple to resolve it seems, Greece will get additional funds of €12 Billion by mid-June only if they agree to stricter austerity measures. By showing complacency regarding austerity measures, Greece might further advance its own cause of further bailouts. In turn Greece will refrain from defaulting. Bearing the following premise in mind, market participants are becoming optimistic and bidding up the Euro,” said Andrei Tratseuski, from Forex Club.

However, EUR/USD found resistance at the 1.4325 area and has spent the last hours consolidating into a tight range just below that level. At time of writing, the pair is quoting at the 1.4310 zone, 0.23% above its opening price. On the upside, if the Euro manages to extend gains beyond highs, next resistance might be found at 1.4335, while immediate supports could be faced at 1.4190 and 1.4150/60.


Friday, June 17, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4308

Analysts at the Commerzbank forecast that the EUR/USD will likely trade at 1.50 at the end of the 3Q and at 1.45 by the end of the year. According to them the US Dollar is likely to remain under pressure as the Fed go on with its ultra-expansionary policy. The Euro could suffer repeated sharp, but brief moves triggered by rounds of EMU debt crisis but “otherwise, EUR-USD should continue to trend upwards in the short to medium run.”


Tuesday, June 14, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4447

Euros gained strength yesterday and once we broke 1.4385 we have carried on higher for the next resistance level of 1.4445.

According to Carol Harmer, Chief Analyst and Founder at Charmer Charts: "We may well find a small amount of sellers waiting around 1.4440/45 area and they will try and drive us lower back through 1.4385 to 1.4325 area."

She expands: "Around 1.4385/1.4325 zone, buyers will be waiting thus sellers are advised to cover all shorts to here. We would expect this lower support level to hold and for buyers to come back into the market and try and hold this up."

The British Analyst concludes: "Now as stated you have resistance at 1.4445/57. If then we break above 1.4460 we are expected to rise further with 1.4540/55 then the targeted area."


Sunday, June 12, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4349

On the BNP Paribas weekly report, Clemente De Lucia affirmed that the ECB will continue its tightening cycle as inflation is on the rise and the bank will use it standard instrument: key rates to keep inflation in line with price stability in the medium term. “An unbalanced recovery and persistent tensions in financial markets will induce the ECB to proceed in its tightening cycle at a modest pace. Apart from anything else, the strong euro has the effect of tightening monetary and financial conditions, reducing the need for higher rates.”

According to De Lucia the differences between monetary policy in the US and in Europe are widening yield spreads, strengthening the euro that “is likely to remain at elevated levels for a while (the OECD estimate of fair value is around 1.25, based on PPP for GDP), before easing next year when the Fed is expected to start its own tightening cycle.”


Saturday, June 11, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4349

EUR/USD is about to close the week recording an impressive loss after 3 weeks with gains. The pair has erased within the last 3 days the gains accomplished last week as it failed to break above 1.4700 on Wednesday and plummeted more than 350 pips.

During Friday's American session, the pair accelerated to the downside amid risk aversion and continuing concerns about the Greek debt crisis, dropping over 180 pips or 1.2% and breaking through several support levels to reach the lowest price since June 2 at 1.4322. However, EUR/USD has managed to bounce from lows, back above the 1.4330 zone which represents the 50% retracement of its last rally and at time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting at the 1.4340/50 region.

The hegemonic currency is the worst performer this week, having fallen 4 out of the 5 trading days against the Greenback, and it is on track to close Friday 1.81% below its Monday's opening. Against the Yen, the Euro is 1.64% down on the week.


Wednesday, June 1, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4410

EUR/USD is seeing some profit-taking as Europeans try and square up at the end of their day. We probed above 1.4450 barriers and the 50% Fibo of the drop from 1.4940 but were unable to hold those levels. We trade now at 1.4410. Bids are eyed in the 1.4395/1.4405 area; small stops are seen around 1.4390. Large stops are seen below 1.4360 if the pullback starts to snowball...