Saturday, April 30, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4805

The EUR/USD rose posting one of the biggest weekly gains since the beginning of the year. The pair broke above 1.4650 on Tuesday and reached at 1.4881 on Thursday the highest price since December 7, 2009. On Friday it pulled back but managed to hold above 1.4800.

According to Danske Bank analysts the EUR/USD got strong support from the dovish message that Ben Bernanke delivered in its historic press conference on Wednesday underlining “the clear monetary divergence between the Fed and the ECB”. “We are now approaching our 3M forecast of 1.50, but further upside could be in the pipeline as the ECB maintains its hawkish tone while the Fed stays dovish”, analysts said .

On a monthly basis the pair jumped in April, rising 650 pips and posted the fifth monthly gain in a row.


Friday, April 29, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4840

Euro recovery from yesterday's low at 1.2750 has been capped at 1.2960/65 resistance area, and the pair has pulled lower, forming another "double top" at the mentioned 1.2960, according to Fan Yang, technical analyst at FXTimes.

The pair has formed a "double top" pattern, according to Yang, activated below 1.2910: "The recent from 1.28 has met resistance at 1.2960. During today’s European session, a double top is forming with a break below the 1.2910 support."

On the downside, the pair targets 1.2800 says Yang: "As the market has been bearish from 1.3250, the bearish outlook is inline with the prevailing trend. Looking at the internal structure of the sideways channel seen in the 4H chart, a wave equality target is at 1.28."


Thursday, April 28, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4798

Rebound from Tuesday's low at 1.4490 extended yesterday, on Dollar weakness after Bernanke showed its commitment to maintain interest rates near zero, and the pair rose to fresh 16-month highs at 1.4885, to consolidate above 1.4825 during the European session.

On the downside, below 1.4825 (session low), the pair might find support at 1.4770 (day low) and 1.47155 (intra-day level). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.4880 (day high), and above here, 1.4905 (Dec 7, 2009 high) and 1.5000 (psychological level).

EUR/JPY bounced on Tuesday at 118.50 low, and the pair rallied yesterday and on early Asian session today, to reach fresh 2-week highs at 121.80 and pill back to 120.80 low during the European session.


Wednesday, April 27, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4673

Euro bearish correction was contained yesterday at 1.4500 area, and the par resumed the upside on Wednesday reaching fresh one-year highs at 1.4715, with scope to extend higher this session, according to Carol Harmer, technical analyst at CharmerCharts.

The pair faces resistance at 1.4715/30, according to Harmer, with next targets, above here, at 1.4760 and 1.4785: "We do have some resistance at 1.4715/30 and today we will either look to buy dips down to 1.4630/25 or buy a break of 1.4730. If we do break the 1.4730 resistance we should be able
to trade higher with 1.4760 to 1.4785 the targeted area."

On the downside, Harmer points out to key support level at 1.4625: "Now if we cannot hold over 1.4625 we should see a small retracement with 1.4585 then looking to entice."


Tuesday, April 26, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4684

The Euro consolidates right beneath its fresh 16-month high against the Greenback, awaiting the conclusion of the 2-day Fed's meeting.

EUR/USD jumped to a high of 1.4656 earlier during the American session, boosted by the risk appetite surrounding the markets. However, the shared currency has been unable to make any progress above that level. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.4630, posting a 0.36% daily gain.

The FXMarketAlerts team commented, "Current consolidation phase may last into tomorrow but we doubt we have seen an important top yet. Support is at 1.4575/85 then 1.4545. Above 1.4651 next significant target is at 1.4680".


EUR/USD 1,4617

Euro pullback from 1.4650 high last Thursday has found support at 1.4490/00 on early Asian session, and, after a brief period of consolidation, the pair has bounced higher on European session, rallying about 150 pips to reach 1.4650 area.

On the upside, above 1.4650 (Apr 21 high/session high), the pair might find resistance at 1.4700 (psychological level) and then at 1.4730/50 area (daily and weekly pivot point resistance). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.4490 (day low), and below here, 1.4400 (20-day MA) and 1.4325 (Apr 20 low).

EUR/GBP pullback from 0.8850 high on Monday has found support at 0.8810 on early Asian session, and the pair Bounced higher on European session, reaching 0.8880 resistance area, under pressure at the moment of writing.


Monday, April 25, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4611

The US dollar remains weak and is extending losses across the board. EUR/USD has risen around 0.46% on Monday and within the last hour hit a 2-day peak at 1.4626. The cross holds near a 16-month high set last week at 1.4648.

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at said, "Euro bullish momentum is not even close to give up, with the pair accelerating higher and approaching to 1.4645 past week high and roof of the daily ascendant channel, coming from February 14th".

"With 4 hours chart showing a strong 20 SMA acting as dynamic support and momentum turning flat above its midline while RSI picks up, a break above mentioned level should signal at least a continuation towards the 1.4680/1.4710 price zone", said Bednarik. "The movement will mostly be limited by lack of volume rather than lack of strength".

"Support now comes at 1.4600, yet only below 1.4580, we can see a retest of the 1.4525 lows", she concluded.


Sunday, April 24, 2011


Majors kicked off a new trading week virtually unchanged from past Friday's closing levels. Varies financial centres will remain close this Monday, fact that will most likely contribute to a slow session.

EUR/USD trades at 1.4557, revitalized after the strong bounce off 1.4150 lows earlier last week. GBP/USD remains firm at 1.6520. USD/JPY continues to be capped by 82.00, currently at 81.80. AUD/USD hovers around 1.0750.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4557

This week, better than expected “first quarter earnings helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest level in over three years. The upbeat earnings announcements overshadowed somewhat lackluster housing market data released during the week,” according to the Wells Fargo Research Team.

Still and regarding Europe, they add: “Greek and Portugal yield spreads climbed to record levels this week and the cost of insuring these bonds against default increased to all-time highs. Fears of a debt restructuring have fueled the recent increases” however, “for now, at least, the debt markets appear to be keeping the sovereign debt panic contained. Spain and Italian debt is performing quite a bit better, though these markets are under some pressure as well. The Spanish 2-year note yield is at 3.46 percent, while the Italian 2-year is holding at around 3.05 percent”.


Friday, April 22, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4555

The Euro is losing ground over the past hour, retracing from a daily high at 1.4585 to make a quick comeback towards its opening price at 1.4550. At the time of writing, price is hovering around 1.4560.

In the Asian session, the pair showed a moderate positive tone but that was not enough for Euro bulls to break though the 50% fib retrac. from yesterday's pullback.

Further downside pressure may send the price towards 1.4540 ahead of key support at 1.4520. A break down beyond this latter level seems unlikely. On the upside, resistance can be found at 1.4585, today's high. Above, 1.4645 high will get exposed again.


Thursday, April 21, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4566

Stocks rose in the US, reaching fresh multi-year highs. Optimism arising form corporate earnings managed to offset weak economic data. Among currencies the Dollar lost ground once again across the board but managed to recover ground during the American session, ending the day off session lows.

The DOW gained 0.42%, posted the third consecutive increase and finished for the second day in a row at the highest level since June 2008 at 12,505. The NASDAQ and the S&P 5000 ended up 0.63% and 0.53% respectively. All the stock indexes finished the week higher. Tomorrow US and European stock markets will be closed. Gold climbed to new record highs for the fifth consecutive session and peaked at $1,508.

Dollar repeats yesterday’s performance
Greenback fell across the board on Thursday but during the American session trimmed losses in the market, rebounding from daily lows. The EUR/USD pulled back below 1.4600 to 1.4530, erasing most of it gains, but still able to end with mild gains.

The Pound rose in the market supported by upbeat UK economic data. Despite being unable to rise above 1.6600, GBP/USD finished on top of 1.6500, posting the highest daily close since December 2009.

The Swiss Franc reached once again new record highs against the Dollar, confirming its uptrend. The Kiwi and the Aussie finished higher against the Dollar, after reaching multi-year highs. The Loonie also climbed to a multi-year high but weakened considerably in the market on American hours, falling sharply across the board.


Wednesday, April 20, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4520

The Euro has risen sharply during the last two days to retrace the whole decline from last week highs and reach fresh year highs at 1.4550 where, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, the pair could fail. and retreat to 1.4100 area.

Jones advices to allow for failure at 1.441.4445/1.4535 resistance: "EUR/USD has seen a strong recovery and looks set to retest the 1.4445/1.4535 resistance (1995 high), where we would again allow for failure. Initial support lies at 1.4130, the 23.6% retracement of the move higher seen this year. However we suspect that we will see the Euro sell off to 1.4021, the end of March low."


Tuesday, April 19, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4286

Euro went through one of its sharpest sell off in several months yesterday, plummeting almost 300 pips on the day to reach fresh 2-week lows at 1.4155, were the pair found support to pick up over the last sessions, returning to 1.4300, to test resistance at the broken trendline support from January lows.

Above the mentioned 1.4310, the pair might find resistance at 1.4365/75 (Apr 12/14 lows) and 1.4425 (Apr 18 high). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.4245 (previous day high) and below here, 1.4200 (day low), and 1.4150 (Apr 5/18 low).

EUR/GBP retreat from 0.8925 high on April 13, extended on Monday to a fresh 8-day low at 0.8740, and the pair has been trimming losses on Tuesday's Asian and European sessions returning to 0.8795 high so far.


Sunday, April 17, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4384

EUR/USD Current price: 1.4409. Euro opened the week slightly lower, following past Friday's weakness, and testing at the time of writing the 1.4415 area.

While the ECB is determinate to keep fighting inflation with rake hikes, the sovereign debt jitters continue: Greece continues to be on default risk, and protests had arisen over the weekend.

"Technically, hourly chart has a bearish perspective, with indicators heading south below their midlines, and 20 SMA above current price with a nice bearish slope and acting as dynamic resistance", said Valeria Bednarik, analyst at

"Still above 1.4400, 4 hours chart also holds a bearish tone that can weight on the pair over the next hours: 1.4365, past week low, is now key support to break", Bednarik said.

Support levels: 1.4400 1.4365 1.4320. Resistance levels: 1.4440 1.4470 1.4510.


Saturday, April 16, 2011



Words fail me!

EUR/USD 1,4432

The Euro fell on Friday against the Dollar and posted a small weekly decline. The EUR/USD reached fresh 14-month highs on Tuesday around the 1.4520 region that become a strong resistance zone capping the upside on the subsequent days.

The European currency moved in a 170 pips range between the highest and the lowest price of the week, after rising more than 250 pips in the previous one. The pair failed to make a daily or weekly close above 1.4500 and finished the week hovering below 1.4450.

Analysts at the Danske Bank continue to warn that based on differences in monetary policy between the Fed -that remains dovish- and the ECB -that has already raise rates- the EUR/USD “still point to the upside”. They expect the EUR/USD to trade at 1.50 in three months, at 1.50 also in six months and at 1.40 in 12 months “as the market begins to price in the first Fed hike”.


Thursday, April 14, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4489

Long term bullish trend in the common currency seems to be unbeatable, as after falling to 1.4365, the Euro is back up, reaching fresh US session highs and approaching to 1.4500. Sovereign debt woes had return to the table over the past two days, yet rate differentials weight more right now, favoring Euro against major rivals.

Having reached 1.4490 by the time of writing, immediate resistance lays at 1.4520, past Wednesday daily high, followed by 1.4550 area, January 2010 strong congestion zone. Supports now, are located at 1.4460, intraday static area, followed then by 1.4415 price zone.


EUR/USD 1,4419

The Euro has been hammered across the board on European session, hit by renewed concerns about debt issues among several EU members, after the German Finance Minister hinted to about the possibility of debt restructuring in Greece.

EUR/USD recovery from 1.4405 was capped at 1.4515, right below one-year high 1.4520, to plunge about 130 pips lower during European session reaching day low levels at 1.4385.

EUR/GBP was capped at 0.8880 and the pair plunged on European session to 0.8820 low. EUR/JPY recovery from 120.20 low in Asia halted at 121.35, and the pair plunged about 160 pips to 119.70 low.

The Euro has been swept away by renewed debt fears, triggered by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who affirmed yesterday that Greece might have to go through a debt restructuring process, which has boosted the prices of Greek bonds.


Wednesday, April 13, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4505

EUR/USD tried to break higher but faltered just prior the level of 1.4535 at 1.4520 on Tuesday, and edged lower to current levels around 1.4475 where it has been consolidating most of the Asian session.

According to Carol Harmer, analyst at CharmerCharts, the medium term charts show the pair in quite dangerously overbought territory, so a pullback could be expected. However, she thinks above 1.4535 the bullish move could resume, "Only then would the market shrug off these overbought indicators leaving buyers to take us higher for 1.4635", Harmer said.

On the downside, she locates support at 1.4450, "A loss through here keeps the sellers in a strong position and we should be able to drive this lower to more manageable levels of 1.4385/75 and possibly 1.4350".


Tuesday, April 12, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4479

The Euro fell more than 50 pips in 60 minutes and trimmed gains. The EUR/USD retreated sharply after hitting at 1.4517 the highest price in 14 months following Wall Street opening, accelerating the downside below 1.4500. The decline found support around 1.4435 and currently the pair is trading above 1.4450.

Despite the recent slide the common currency is still gaining on a daily basis against the Dollar and holds more than 85 pips above Asian session lows.

Technically speaking, according to Andrei Tratseuski from Forex Club, intermediate resistance hovers at 1.4675 “represented by 127.1% Fibonacci extension of major high and major low as well as the highest level reached in 2010” while to the downside current support lingers at the first standard deviation at 1.4375.


Monday, April 11, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4439

The Euro found support at 1.4415/20, daily low, and gained momentum after Wall Street opening, and recovered ground. The pair rose to 1.4465/70, where it found resistance. The EUR/USD currently trades around the same price levels it had at the beginning of the day.

“Still and despite short term bullish, long term trend remains intact in the pair” said Valeria Bednarik, collaborator at According to her, the pair needs to break below 1.4410 to accelerate the decline on Monday.

Despite holding above 1.4420 against the Dollar, the Euro is trading at fresh lows versus the Swiss Franc. The EUR/CHF failed to hold above 1.3100 and at the moment trades at daily lows at 1.3095.


Friday, April 8, 2011

EUR/USD 1.4483

Despite traders seem to have left early this weekend, and forex market seems already close due to the lack of volume, EUR/USD holds steady near the 15-month high set today at 1.4545. While usually on Friday’s following a week with large gains as euro posted this one are days of profit taking and at least contrarian corrective movements, investors seem to expect fresh highs for the upcoming week.

According to Fan Yang from FXTimes, 1.5140 target might open un next week, if the pair manages to overcome the 1.4500 price zone. As he says, “the EUR/USD is heading into a zone of heavy resistance, but seems unabated so far”, adding that mentioned 1.4500, represents the 200% extension of an inverted Fibonacci. He finally adds: “We should not consider the bearish outlook until a break below 1.4250. Correction from 1.45 might turn into sideways action between 1.4250 and 1.45”.


EUR/USD 1,4439

The ecofin group held an informal meeting this morning where the Portuguese bailout was discussed. The outcome of the meeting is a preliminary draft of the conditions where as Olli Rehn, Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, stated in a press conference the package will amount to roughly 80 billion euros.


Wednesday, April 6, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4340

The EUR/USD extends further to the upside over the North American session, breaking past prior resistance at 1.4320 and hitting a fresh 14-month high around 1.4340. The common currency has shown mostly bullish tendencies in recent sessions as the market highly expects a rate hike by the ECB tomorrow.

While still poised for further gains, immediate resistance past its current level are listed at 1.4370 (Dn TL Fm Jul 2008 High), 1.4415 (Daily High Jan 19) and 1.4512 (Daily High Jan 15). In the case of a corrective move to the downside, support is placed at 1.4255 (Hourly Support Apr 16), 1.4205 (Hourly Low Apr 6) and 1.4167 (10-Day MA).


Monday, April 4, 2011

Gold @ 1.432,50

Gold futures dropped hard on last Friday´s robust NFP results, but quickly recovered to the upside of $1430 to finish the week where it remains on Monday. The front-month contract has steadily risen to a daily high of $1437.00/ounce where it trades just under at time of writing.

Overall market volatility remains noticeable low today as traders await the ECB and BoE rate decisions in the coming days. Still, broad uncertainty regarding geopolitical risks in MENA as well as the debt problems in Europe support the yellow metal in range to all-time highs.

John Kicklighter of DailyFX suggests: “A preoccupation with rates (seen in FX) does not direct capital to the metal. General risk appetite can revive the speculative interests in gold; but we greater conviction than what we currently have. And risk aversion at this point would actually hurt.”

Euro recovery from 1.4020 low last week, extended on Monday's Asian session to 1.4269 high, to pull down on European morning, with risk appetite waning, and test support at 1.4200 area which so far remains unbroken.

On the downside, below 1.4190/00 (day lows), the Euro might find support at 1.4150 (Mar 29/30 highs) and 1.4060 (Apr 1 low). Resistance levels remain at 1.4240/45 (intra-day resistance), and above here, 1.4280 (Nov 4,2010 high) and 1.4415 (Jan 20 2010 high).

Mid-term frames show the Euro bullish targeting 1.4285, according to Stoyan Mihaylov, technical analyst at "Friday's test of 1.4050 support failed and a sharp reversal followed, initiating a rise all the way up to 1.4268. The bias on the mid-frame is bullish for a tight test of 1.4283 high, but the intraday outlook is bearish for 1.4179 support."


Sunday, April 3, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4219

The Australian Dollar remains well bid at its 28-year high against the US Dollar; after closing the past week 1.35% higher, the pair has just attempted a new break up at the big round number 1.0400.

The European shared currency is also showing a solid footing at the opening. Against the Dollar, the price popped up over 10 pips to currently stay at 1.4230. GBP/USD is slightly lower at 1.6100. JPY crosses are unchanged.


Saturday, April 2, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4235

The EUR/USD reversed sharply on Friday, erased losses and posted the biggest weekly close since January of 2010. The pair did not reach fresh highs over the week but finished around 1.4220/30, near 2010 highs that lie at 1.4245/50.

The common currency rose more than 150 pips in the last trading hours of the week, after being able to hold above 1.4000.

The Danske Banks notes that the Euro continues to be supported despite European debt concerns: “Risk appetite and not least relative rates are still the main supportive factors for EUR”. Danske analyst continue to forecast EUR/USD at 1.46 in three months’ time.

The Euro also finished the week higher against the Yen and its European rivals. The main event next week will be the European Central Bank rate decision. Expectations are for a rate hike of 25 basis points.

S&P cuts Ireland to BBB+, outlook stable Fed's Plosser: Strong rebound in economy, inflation may require aggressive policy action Time to tighten may not be a long way off Non-farm payrolls rise 216,000; unemployment rate dips to 8.8% from 8.9% in March Greek finance minister: Deficit will be higher than forecast--Bloomberg Australian Treasurer: Natural disasters, Japan will have big impact on budget Fed's Fisher: Fed may have done too much in reliquifying economy Fitch places Ireland on review for downgrade ISM 61.2 in March from 61.4 in February; consensus was for 61.0 Fed's Dudley: No reason to reverse course on policy; must not be overly optimistic on growth; not out of woods yet Fed's Lacker: Rate in hike in 2011 would not be surprising; must be alert to possible rapid withdrawal of monetary stimulus Fitch downgrades Portugal to BBB-; outlook negative S&P 500 closes at 1332, up 0.5% US 10-year note reverses early yield gains on strong US data after dovish Dudley comments Oil closes at 30-month high of $108.14 Fed's Fisher: Must stop accommodation; policy normalization makes good sense