“The Euro has been moving in lock-step with equities recently (as well as oil) and so the risk-off trade was in full effect as the EUR/USD fell through the 1.41 area. With lingering concerns about what happens with Greece yet to be decided by EU members, traders do not want to hold EUR”, said Nick Nasad, fundamental analyst at FXtimes.
Regarding Eurozone debt problems, the Danske Bank affirmed in its weekly report: “Greek finances seem unsustainable, and the risk of restructuring – which could lead to losses in the European banking sector and a sell-off of EUR – is ever-present. However, our euro economists expect further loans to be extended to Greece, so avoiding or at least deferring such a scenario”. They anticipate some normalization of the EUR risk premium in the coming months. “In this context, it should also be noted that our short-term model for EUR/USD, which is based partly on relative interest rates, gives an equilibrium exchange rate above 1.46”.