Monday, February 28, 2011

Dollar recovers ground

Wall Street lost momentum after a strong opening. Main indexes are off session highs; the DOW is rising 0.35% and the NASDAQ is falling 0.41%, despite a decline in crude oil and positive economic data from the US. In London, the FTSE 100 lost 0.12% and in Germany the DAX gained 1.21%. Crude oil is retreating on Monday, trading at the moment around $98.00 a barrel while gold continues to move in ranges between $1,407 and $1,415.

In the currency market, Dollar managed to hold during the American session and trimmed losses in many crosses. EUR/USD retreated further and reached a session low at 1.3778; the Euro is still up for the day but off highs. GBP/USD is hovering around 1.6250, near daily highs and more than 150 pips above the price it had at the beginning of the day. USD/JPY failed to rise above 82.00 and is now pulling back, approaching 81.80.

The Loonie is outperforming the Kiwi and the Aussie and is rising in the market. USD/CAD reached fresh 3-year lows while AUD/USD and NZD/USD remained steady.


EUR/USD 1.3862

The Euro has opened the week on a positive mood, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, aiming towards 1.3862, key resistance level, on its way towards 1.3950/1.4000.

The pair seems likely to assault 1.3862, en route to 1.3950/1.4000, where, according to Jones, failure is favoured: "EUR/USD starts the week ready to challenge the 1.3862 February high and extend gains towards 1.3960/1.4000, this is the location of the 78.6% retracement of the move down from November – it is also the location of the 200 week moving average. Our expectation is for a move to but failure at 1.3950/1.4000."

Downside attempts are expected to be contained at 1.3705/45 and 1.3635/11, says Jones: "Near term dips will find support at 1.3705/45 ahead of 1.3635/11 (2 month support line)."


Sunday, February 27, 2011

EUR/USD 1.3720

EUR/USD has slipped down to its session low at 1.3720, braking through its Friday's low. Pair holds a slightly bearish tone in the hourly chart, although limited to the short term; ahead of both ECB monetary policy and US NFP, "expect the early week to be range bound, with 1.3630 area as probable base for the range" says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at

Elaborating further on her technical view, Valeria sees the upside rather limited: "Below 20 SMA both in 1 and 4 hours charts, and with indicators heading south, 1.3720 past Friday’s low is immediate support to watch ahead of further loses. Above 1.3760, pair should start a recovery although 1.3860 seems strong enough to keep the upside limited for now".

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Dow Jones

Emerging market economies are likely to continue growing rapidly, Bank of England policy maker Charles Bean said Friday, also noting that prices for agricultural commodities could drop back a bit. Bean was responding to questions from the audience about inflation and rising commodity prices at the Chicago Booth U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York. He is the deputy governor for monetary policy. "It's reasonable to expect emerging economies to continue to grow pretty rapidly," Bean told an audience of Federal Reserve officials and top bank economists.

When asked about core versus headline inflation, Bean said he has always been wary of core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. He said it is important that policy makers dig below the measure of core inflation and consider the forces that are driving growth.

The key question now is just how much the rapid growth in commodity prices over the last six months will affect prices in general, Bean said.  In his prepared remarks, Bean said that asset purchases should be part of a central bank's monetary policy toolkit only in emergencies. He said central banks should use short-term interest rates as their primary policy tool when normalcy returns.

Central banks have accumulated sizeable holdings in recent years after buying assets such as government bonds and other securities, in a bid to stimulate growth amid the global downturn. When asked if a bank could use large-scale asset sales as a way to cool the economy once growth starts to surge, Bean said, in principle, yes. However, he said, asset sales aren't the best way to cool off an economy. Monetary policy is best designed for that purpose, he noted. "The first tool should be macroprudential tools."

Friday, February 25, 2011


The Dollar finished the week with more losses than gains in the market. EUR/USD fell on Friday after being unable to hold above 1.3800, to end the week hovering around 1.3730/60. Despite the retreated from 3-week highs at 1.3839, the Euro managed to finished above 1.3700, posting the highest weekly close since early November.

The Euro finished mixed across the board. Next Thursday the ECB will decide on monetary policy. According to the Danske Bank, the ECB Governing Council meeting looks set to be unusually interesting: “We will find out if the ECB plans to continue with full allotments in its market operations”.

USD/CHF fell sharply and posted the lowest weekly close on history while GBP/USD failed to hold to gains and finished the week lower, around 1.6100, on retreat after hitting at 1.6271 on Wednesday, the highest price in 20 days. The Swiss Franc and the Yen were the best performers during the week.

Among commodity currencies, the worst performer was the Kiwi that sank across the board affected by an earthquake that shook New Zealand on Tuesday. AUD/NZD rose to 1.3547, hitting the highest price in 10 years.


Thursday, February 24, 2011

EUR/USD aiming for 1.3860

EUR/USD has been grinding to higher ground for the past few hours, getting into close contact with its daily peak at 1.3818. After the strong rebound from an intra-day low at 1.3700 earlier in Europe, the cross has remained on a steady upward pace, and pull-backs have been shallow. Current price lies at 1.3800, a rise of 56 pips or 0.40% on the day.

According to Fan Yang, Chief Technical Strategist at FXTimes: “The 1H chart shows the momentum remaining bullish with the RSI above 40, however a bit of a lost in momentum reflected by the bearish divergence. 4H chart does not even show bullish momentum, but the RSI did remain above 40, and being above 60 reflects bullish bias. If the market breaks above the current target of 1.3860, we can see the RSI reach above 70 for a bullish momentum breakout signal”.

“The daily chart shows the immediate target above 1.3860 is 1.3980, 78.6% retracement level, and a declining trendline, which might actually be lower, close to the 1.39 level, so anticipate resistance at this level as well. Above this 1.40 area, 1.4280 is our next target (Nov. 2010 high). For the bearish scenario, a decline back towards 1.3550 can be expected if the market breaks below 1.37, but a more significant bearish scenario only opens up below 1.34”.


EUR/USD 1.3800

Euro rejection from 1.3785 high on early Asian session has been contained at 1.3705 at European opening times, and the pair has bounced strongly afterwards, breaking above 1.3785, to reach fresh 3-week highs above 1.3800.

On the upside, above 1.3785, the pair might find resistance at 1.3825 (Feb 3 high) and 1.3860 (Feb 2 high). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.3700/20 (Day low/Feb 21/22 highs), below here, 1.3680, and then, 1.3235 (intra-day levels).

EUR/JPY retreat from 113.80 high on Wednesday, extended to 112.20 -Feb 22 low- at European session opening, where the pair found support, to pick up, reaching 112.95 at the moment of writing.

Even though the most active crude contract for April delivery briefly touched the $100.00 mark yesterday, the future today jumped a fresh $4.00 to hit a 29-month high of $103.41 a barrel before consolidating around $101.00 by time of writing.

The market now fears prolonged unrest in Libya, as escalating violence appears to put the country on the brink of civil war. Oil companies have further cut production as they scramble to evacuate foreign workers by any means possible, putting more pressure on other OPEC members including Saudia Arabia to make up for supply shortfalls.

Traders today will continue to have a close on the seemingly deteriorating situation in Libya, as well as the budding protests in other oil-rich countries within the Middle East. What´s more, focus will be on the EIA´s weekly inventories report to be released later today


Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Four -- wait for it --- hundred

I never expected to get 400 followers thank you for the big support, <3 you all!

EUR/USD 1.3735

The hegemonic currency has risen against the Greenback on Wednesday supported by buying from hedge funds and Asian central banks besides short-covering. EUR/USD reached a high of 1.3735 at the beginning of the Asian session after closing the NY session at the 1.3650 zone.

However, the Euro has lacked energy to break above this week's highs around 1.3715 and the pair has spent the last hours trading in a tight range around 1.3700 unable to pick up fresh momentum ahead of the European opening.

On the upside, above 1.3715, next resistance levels could be faced at 1.3750 ahead of 1.3790/1.3800, while on the downside, supports might be found at 1.3660, 1.3625 and 1.3580.


Tuesday, February 22, 2011


Dollar is again intraday positive against major rivals, except CHF and JPY, as risk aversion triggered a return to safe havens following Libya political turmoil. In fact, the turmoil is spreading over the Middle East and North of Africa since one month ago, with the Egyptian crisis. The flight to safe havens has took EUR/USD below 1.3660, despite early comments of a possible rate hike in the euro zone keeps the cross barely below daily opening.

GBP/USD approaches to 1.6100 daily low while Aussie slide extended below parity against the greenback. Swiss Franc and Japanese yen are broadly higher, as USD/CHF remains below 0.9400 while USD/JPY reaches a fresh daily low around 82.76; with US Treasury yields sharply lower, as well as indexes, run to safe havens seems meant to extend over the upcoming sessions.


European markets drop, Dollar stronger on rising tensions in Libya

European markets are going through considerable declines on early Tuesday's session, with risk aversion dominating, on concerns about growing tensions in Egypt and Moody's downgrade of Japan's debt. In currency markets the Dollar appreciated against Euro Pound and Yen.

Eurostoxx 50 Index drops 1.3%, while the German DAX Index sheds 0.7%, and the French CAC 1.7% below the opening level. In the UK, the FTSE Index dips 1.25% less than two hours after the opening bell.

European markets are trading under strong risk aversio,n following escalating tensions in Libya, where army jets and helicopters bombed demonstrators causing more than 200 deaths, and raising serious concerns about shortages on oil production.

Asian stocks have moved lower on Tuesday weighed by a strong earthquake in New Zealand's Cristchurch, which has killed at least 65 people, and Moody's decision to cut Japan's Aa2 debt rate to "negative", from stable.

Dollar rises on risk aversion

EUR/USD retreat from Friday's high at 1.3715 extended on Asian session below 1.3600 to hit day low at 1.3525, before picking up to 1.3575 area on early European session.

GBP/USD retreat from Friday's high at 1.6260 extended in Asia below 1.6200 to find support at 1.6130 at London session opening, and pick up to 1.6180.

USD/JPY attempted to bounce up from 82.85 low on early¡y Asian session, to be capped at 83.45 and the paitr plunged on European session opening returning below 83.00 to hit a fresh 8-day low at 82.80.


Monday, February 21, 2011

Day Wrap-Up

American markets were closed on President's Day, resulting in a very slow day with no majors changes other than the spike in commodities. Metals continued to rally, while heavy buying on Oil led prices to soar by more than 6% past $90/bbl as tensions in the Middle-East worsen.

Asian session – Majors hover around NY closing levels

It was another quiet session in Asia, with majors moving in a torturous sideways fashion around its NY closing levels. EUR/USD made a high at 1.3724 but lack of follow through led the pair to retreat towards 1.3667. AUD/USD pared Friday's gains on profit taking, ending at 1.0115.

Regional bourses -0.5% on average. Oil rose almost 1% on increased tensions in Libya, where hundreds were feared dead. Angela Merkel’s CDU had a rout on Hamburg state elections. Two Irish banks were to blame for the last week's spike in ECB emergency borrowing. UK house prices were up 3.1% MoM. Japanese PM continued to lose popularity according to the latest surveys.

European session – Commodities rise on concerns

EUR/USD settled at 1.3675 by session end,  effectively unchanged on the day. We did rally to 1.3700 but lack of momentum undermined any hopes to witness a break-up. GBP/USD tailed off at 1.6220, slightly lower. The rest of pairs were virtually unchanged.

Gold skyrocketed to $1,406 while silver resumed uptrend to a new 31-yr high at $33.88. The Loonie was substantially higher as Oil went ballistic, rising more than 6% on Middle East social unrest.

Euro zone February manufacturing PMI 59.0, up from 57.3 in January. Ifo February German business climate index 111.2,  better than median forecast 110.3.


Euro struggles on US

Today the US observes Presidents' Day with banks and government offices closed for business, along those same lines, Canada celebrates Family Day. Despite that the common currency is unable to break ground on a day with light trading. The EUR/USD opened the week at 1.3696 and drifted downwards to the 1.3660 area, where it's trading at the time of writing.

In terms of the euro versus the sterling, despite the opening gains that drove the pair upwards to 0.8444, daily high, late in the European session the pair spiked down to 0.8416 paring those gains.

Put against the Japanese Yen, the hegemonic currency managed to stay above the opening level at 113.90 during the Asian session, but the unrest in middle east seems to have favored the safe heaven character of the JPY, weighing on the pair down to 113.66, area where it trades at the time of writing.


Sunday, February 20, 2011


The EUR/USD is retracing slightly after hitting the top end of its current range, says HiFX senior trader Stuart Ive. "Obviously all eyes are looking at what is going on in the Middle East still; I'm a little bit surprised that we haven't seen any risk aversion in the currencies as of yet." The pair is at 1.3702. He says the market is just going to play the ranges--"German IFO Business Climate will be one of the features but I think the market in the next 24 hours will be firmly looking towards the Middle East." He expects the EUR/USD to trade with a range of 1.3740-1.3560 Monday.


Charting, Support and Resistance


A support level is a price level where the price tends to find support as it is going down. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has passed this level, by an amount exceeding some noise, it is likely to continue dropping until it finds another support level.


A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price tends to find resistance as it is going up. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has passed this level, by an amount exceeding some noise, it is likely that it will continue rising until it finds another resistance level.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Analysis Lesson

Six basic tenets of Dow Theory

  1. The market has three movements
    (1) The "main movement", primary movement or major trend may last from less than a year to several years. It can be bullish or bearish. (2) The "medium swing", secondary reaction or intermediate reaction may last from ten days to three months and generally retraces from 33% to 66% of the primary price change since the previous medium swing or start of the main movement. (3) The "short swing" or minor movement varies with opinion from hours to a month or more. The three movements may be simultaneous, for instance, a daily minor movement in a bearish secondary reaction in a bullish primary movement.

  2. Market trends have three phases
    Dow Theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases: an accumulation phase, a public participation phase, and a distribution phase. The accumulation phase (phase 1) is a period when investors "in the know" are actively buying (selling) stock against the general opinion of the market. During this phase, the stock price does not change much because these investors are in the minority absorbing (releasing) stock that the market at large is supplying (demanding). Eventually, the market catches on to these astute investors and a rapid price change occurs (phase 2). This occurs when trend followers and other technically oriented investors participate. This phase continues until rampant speculation occurs. At this point, the astute investors begin to distribute their holdings to the market (phase 3).

  3. The stock market discounts all news
    Stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available. Once news is released, stock prices will change to reflect this new information. On this point, Dow Theory agrees with one of the premises of the efficient market hypothesis.

  4. Stock market averages must confirm each other
    In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air.
    Both Barron's Magazine and the Wall Street Journal still publish the daily performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Index in chart form. The index contains major railroads, shipping companies, and air freight carriers in the US.

  5. Trends are confirmed by volume
    Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low volume, there could be many different explanations why. An overly aggressive seller could be present for example. But when price movements are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed this represented the "true" market view. If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a trend is developing.

  6. Trends exist until definitive signals prove that they have ended
    Dow believed that trends existed despite "market noise". Markets might temporarily move in the direction opposite to the trend, but they will soon resume the prior move. The trend should be given the benefit of the doubt during these reversals. Determining whether a reversal is the start of a new trend or a temporary movement in the current trend is not easy. Dow Theorists often disagree in this determination. Technical analysis tools attempt to clarify this but they can be interpreted differently by different investors.


Friday, February 18, 2011


The Euro rose on Friday for the third day in a row and managed to end the week with a gain of 150 pips. Comments made by ECB’s Bini-Smaghi, suggesting that the bank may me forced to raise rates to curb inflation, send the Euro higher across the board.

The EUR/USD rose further during the American session, hitting a 1-week high at 1.3714; afterwards pulled back to 1.3685. On a weekly basis posted the highest close since mid November.

Analyst at the Danske Bank continue to see the EUR/USD rising throughout 2011 based on the divergence in monetary policies between the ECB and the FED. “In fact, we have moved some euro strength forward in our forecasts. We now expect EUR/USD to hit 1.42 in six months’ time, compared with 1.38 in the previous forecast”. They look for the Euro to be trading at 1.45 in 12 months.

Across the board, the Euro finished mostly higher. EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD posted important weekly gains while EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD finished barely above last Friday’s close. The Swiss Franc was the biggest gainer among majors and finished the week higher against the Euro.


Dollar resumes fall after London close

The greenback bearish momentum accelerated after London close, as the American session shows improving risk appetite: stocks and commodities are strongly up, sending dollar towards weekly lows against most of its rivals; EUR/USD extended gains to 1.3685 daily high by the time of writing, while GBP/USD remains near 1.6244 weekly high.

News that finally Egypt had approved the pass of two Iranian warships through Suez Canal has diluted recent risk aversion trigger by Israel Foreign Minister on the issue, hitting particularly the American currency, as also safe havens CHF and JPY continue gaining ground: USD/CHF is testing 0.9460, support area, previous all time low before past December run to 0.9300, while USD/JPY already overcome yesterday’s low and quotes at 83.05.


Forex Daily Outlook

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks in the US and BOE Gov King Speaks in the UK are the highlights of today’s outlook. Let’s see what awaits us today.

G20 Meetings are attended by finance ministers and central bankers from 20 industrialized nations including the G7 nations – Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US. The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day, and a formal statement covering policy shifts and meeting objectives is released after the meetings have concluded.

In Canada, Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures the goods and services purchased by consumers; is about to rise by 0.3% , and the Core CPI (excluding the 8 most volatile items) is about to rise by 0.5%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, German Producer Price Index (PPI) that measures the goods sold by manufacturers; is about to reduce by 0.1%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Great Britain, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King due to participate in a panel discussion titled “Global Imbalances and Financial Stability” at the Global Imbalances and Financial Stability Launch Event, in Paris.

More in Retail Sales, total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level; is about to rise by 1.4%. It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Later in Great Britain, Bank of England (BOE), Deputy Governor Paul Tucker due to speak at the Clare College Distinguished Lecture, in Cambridge.

Finally in Britain, Prelim Mortgage Approvals, Number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month is due to remain 43K.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!


Thursday, February 17, 2011


EUR/USD extended today’s rally above 1.3600, having reached so far an intraday high of 1.3619, following Wall Street reversal: US indexes are nearing fresh 2-year highs after early loses, with S&P at 1336 and DJIA around 12275. Despite dollar general bearish tone across the board, Euro is struggling to hold onto recent gains above the 1.3600 area, as the common currency seems not the most favored by investors these days.

Technically, the pair is finding resistance in a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.3861, today around 1.3620, according to Valeria Bednarik, chief strategist; as per her view, pair needs to break such level to extend gains towards the 1.3660/80 price area, while she sees strong support at the daily low area, near 1.3530, stating that only below this last, pair could lose current bullish tone.

The Euro / Dollar pair ended the day on a firm footing, having recovered from a daily low at 1.3535 to rebound past 1.3600, hitting a new weekly high at 1.3618. By NY close, the cross managed to hold most gains, closing at 1.3605.

“EUR/USD is still in position to target the 1.3621 level noted. Once that level is probed, there is some pullback potential. Though, note that it would still take a move below the 1.3505/00 support to validate any top seen near 1.3621” said the analysis team at FX Market Alerts.


Euro and Pound pulling back

European markets have opened Thursday's session with marginal gains as upbeat earnings by Nestle and Cap Gemini have lifted market sentiment, which was slightly negative on escalating tensions in the Middle-East.

Eurostoxx 5'0 Index adds 0.2%, while the French CAC Index edges 0.1% up, and the German DAX practically flat. In the UK, the FTSE Index is less than 0.1% higher one hour after the opening bell.

Better than expected quarterly earning figures by Nestle and Capgeminy have increased confidence on the improvement of global economy, although markets remain cautious, holding their breath amid rising tensions on the conflictive Middle-East area, as news about warships on the Suez Canal have arisen concerns in Israel.

Euro and Pound pulling back

EUR/USD recovery from 1.3430 low on Monday extended to a fresh week-high at 1.3610 on early Asian session, to ease afterwards retreating further at European opening, reaching day lows at 1.3535 so far.

GBP/USD sell off from from 1.6185 high yesterday, found support at 1.5985 low, and the pair bounced up on US session to consolidate around 1.6100 in Asian session, easing at European opening to test 1.6085 day low.

USD/JPY recovery from 81.10 low on early February reached fresh 2011 highs at 83.90 yesterday and the pair pulled back on US session, and consolidate around 83.60.


Wednesday, February 16, 2011


ARRRRRR 300 subscribers yeahhh thank you so much guys!!

Introduction to Forex

Many followers asked me to show them how to trade FOREX. Therefore I searched around to find a good introduction to this market. I hope this video is going to help you understanding the currency trading.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Currency trading

funny currency trading commercial:

 and another good advice for Forex trading


Euro recovery from yesterday's low at 1.3425 was capped at 1.3525 high ahead of the European session opening, and the pair pulled back below 1.3500, to find support at 1.3460 area and bounce up on Early European trading, pushing against 1.3525 day high at the moment of writing.

On the upside, above 1.3525 (day high), the pair might find resistance at 1.3560/70 (Feb 14 high/intra-day level) and 1.3620/25 (Feb 7/11 highs). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.3460 (session low), and below here, 1.3425 (Feb 14 low), and 1.3395 (Jan 20 low).

EUR/JPY recovery from yesterday's low at 112.10 has resumed on early European session, after a slight pullback to 112.50, and the pair has extended to day highs above 113.00 approaching resistance levels at at 113.25 and 113.45.

Earnings for today:

Monday, February 14, 2011

The Australian Dollar and British Pound had a good start in Asia, gave back gains through Europe trade yet managed to maintain its allure through America to end up topping the climbers. The Euro had an unfruitful day.

Asian session – USD loses steam

The US Dollar ended as the worst performing currency in Asia, with the Aussie and the British Pound gaining the most, AUD/USD rose to 1.0070, GBP/USD was taken to 1.6070. AUD was benefited by a “leak” hinting a weaker-than-forecast CPI in China today, GBP took advantage of a hunt to stops. EUR/USD regained 1.3550 after a major downgap at the opening.

Japanese Q4 GDP -0.4% QoQ, first quarterly fall in 15 months. Japan’s EconMin Yosano stated that the economy is stagnated but there is signs to be confident. Chinese exports dropped by 2.2% in Jan, imports picked up by 2.2%. Asian stocks rallied, Shanghai up by 1.75%.

European session – Euro makes another step backward

The Euro failed to hold the bearish tide triggered by concerns on the Irish bail-out coupled with uncertainty on rescuing German WestLb. EUR/USD fell as low as 1.3450 from 1.3540. GBP/USD pulled back to session lows around 1.6000, unable to sustain the strong bid tone from Asia. EUR/GBP down at 0.8415.

In the fundamental landscape, very few newsworthy. Euro zone December industrial prodcution -0.1% m/m, +8.0% y/y, in line with median forecasts flat. Portugal Q4 GDP -0.3% q/q, +1.2% y/y against +0.3%, +1.4% in Q3. Euro stocks at in a flatline.

Amerian session – Placid day, USD gives back gains

It was a very quiet journey, with the main highlight being the USD surrending part of its early gains in Europe. EUR/USD extended losses to 1.3430 before a rebound sent the price to 1.3490. GBP/USD picked up to 1.6035. AUD/USD held onto gains at 1.0030.

The US calanedar was virtually empty. Eurogroup’s Juncker and EU’s Rehncrossed the wires, not ruling out the possibility to resze the EFSF to accomodate further needs, saying it could be raised to an effective lending capacity of EUR 500 bln from 440 bln. US Stocks eked out some gains, the S&P 500 rose 0.30%. Oil prices drewn back to $84.95/bbl, while Gol was firmer at $1,361.00/oz.



Should i sell or wait ... what do you think?


Last week's rejection from 1.3750/85 resistance area has set the pair under bearish pressure, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, who foresees further weakness this week, with the the pair drifting towards1.3355 area.

The Euro is likely to extend losses this week, according to Jones, who points out to 1.3355 initial target: "We look for further losses this week towards initially the 55 day ma at 1.3355. Below here we look for losses to extend to 1.3108, the 200 day ma."

On the upside, above 1.3625, bears could lose strength, which, according to Jones, could allow for recovery towards 1.3750/85: "We are currently trading below the 20 day ma at 1.3625 and while capped here, will regard the market as directly offered intraday. Above here would allow for a retest of the 1.3750/85."

Asian stock markets have opened the week on strong note, with demand for risk boosted by Mubarak's resignation in Egypt, which has decreased concerns about the stability of the whole Middle Eastern region.

Oil prices have eased to prices about USD86 a barrel, as the situation in Egypt returns to normal, and fears about an oil shortage faded. In currency markets, the Dollar pulled back against Euro, Pound and Yen.

Japanese Nikkei has risen 1.1% each, while the South Korean Kospi Index surged 1.9%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and Australian ASX Index advanced 1.1% each. Chinese Shangai Composite Index rose 2.2%. Markets in Indonesia, Taiwan and Singapore have also traded higher.


today is going to be payday, already made 500$

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Guide to Forex

Just found this excellent presentation about investing in the Forex market. 

Accounting leverage is total assets divided by total assets minus total liabilities.
Notional leverage is total notional amount of assets plus total notional amount of liabilities divided by equity. Economic leverage is volatility of equity divided by volatility of an unlevered investment in the same assets. To understand the differences, consider the following positions, all funded with $100 of cash equity.
  • Buy $100 of crude oil. Assets are $100 ($100 of oil), there are no liabilities. Accounting leverage is 1 to 1. Notional amount is $100 ($100 of oil), there are no liabilities and there is $100 of equity. Notional leverage is 1 to 1. The volatility of the equity is equal to the volatility of oil, since oil is the only asset and you own the same amount as your equity, so economic leverage is 1 to 1.
  • Borrow $100 and buy $200 of crude oil. Assets are $200, liabilities are $100 so accounting leverage is 2 to 1. Notional amount is $200, equity is $100 so notional leverage is 2 to 1. The volatility of the position is twice the volatility of an unlevered position in the same assets, so economic leverage is 2 to 1.
The most obvious risk of leverage is that it multiplies losses. A corporation that borrows too much money might face bankruptcy during a business downturn, while a less-levered corporation might survive. An investor who buys a stock on 50% margin will lose 40% of his money if the stock declines 20%.

Forex for Beginners

This section is all about Forex trading for beginners and will give the basics of getting started in online Forex trading. Most beginners in Forex lose money because they are looking to make money with no effort and follow others or they simply cannot get the right mindset needed for success. Forex trading is a business and needs to be taken seriously and requires you learn to trade correctly and also adopt the right mindset.

Winners and Losers

The main difference between people who are successful in life and those who aren't is that those who are successful, possess the ability to take focused action. Having knowledge doesn't mean you will be successful - knowing how to apply that knowledge successfully is the key and this is very true in Forex trading.
If you hear from anyone that making money in Forex is easy, do not believe it It's not true, that's why 95% of all Forex traders lose money.

Don't Work Hard Work Smart

Being profitable in Forex trading does not require hard work, you don't get rewarded for the amount of hours you put in so work smart and learn the right info and you can learn Forex trading quickly. It's a fact anyone can learn a simple Forex trading system but to make money requires other traits which include - dedication, discipline, a knowledge of money management and an understanding of the psychology of the market. The real problem New Forex traders have is - they either believe that Forex trading is easy or they are mentally unprepared for the reality of trading a market.
Anyone can learn a Forex trading strategy which gives them the potential to win but very few traders are able to execute trading strategies with discipline. These traders soon end up losing money because they allow their emotions to dictate their trading but always keep the following point in mind:
If you can't trade a Forex trading strategy with discipline, you simply don't have one!

A Trading Strategy for Success

The reason anyone can learn a winning Forex trading strategy is because all the best ones are robust and simple, rather than complex. If you use a complex system it will simply have to many elements to break.
If you use Forex technical analysis and simply follow chart action, you will have a simple and powerful way to make money. You don't need to know the news or anything, about the economy of the country's currency you are trading – You are not interested in the causes of the moves, you just want to follow price action and lock into trends when high odds trading scenarios present themselves to you.

Getting the Right Mindset for Success

This is by far the hardest part for most novice Forex traders and despite the fact traders are told continually of its importance, they still fail to trade with discipline and let their emotions rule their trading. Despite all the advances we have seen in Forex trading systems and technology the fact is that the same ratio of traders lose today as they did 50 years ago and the number is a huge 95%. Can these traders learn to trade successfully? Of course they can but they fail to adopt the right mindset and lose.

So What is the Correct Mindset?

The correct mindset is one which is humble and is not frightened of taking losses. In fact, taking losses and keeping them small is the key to making money longer term. If you want to feel smart and clever and win all the time, don't trade Forex because you won't be able to win the majority of trades. This doesn't matter though and its a fact, many of the worlds best traders, make huge profits winning just 30 50% of the time and this is because:
They have the discipline to cut their losses and keep them small and the courage, to hold their winning trades to cover them and give them a huge overall profit.

Achieving Success – You Can Win!

The most important point we need to make in terms of Forex trading for beginners is this:
You can learn a simple system which can make money, anyone can do this BUT you must adopt the right mindset to make it profitable. The good news is getting the right mindset is a choice and if you make the right choice, there is nothing to stop you achieving a great second income from home trading global currency markets for profit.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Oo .. omfg!

------200 subscribers -----

thank you so much guys, never tought that currency trading could fascinate so much people

Gold is falling

The Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has left his chair today according to Vice-president Omar Suleiman in a recent speech. The 'Rais' succumbed after 18 days of people mobilizations. The gold has begun to decline after news and in matter of minutes the XAU/USD has touch the $1,359.65 level from $1,366.50.

Currently the gold is pricing at $1,361.25.

Mubarak has resigned its position after almost 30 years on charge of the egyptian people. Right now the control of the situation and the power is on military hands.


EUR under pressure

The Euro came under pressure against the Dollar after finding resistance around 1.3570. The pair tumbled and reached a fresh 3-week low barely below 1.3500. EUR/USD rebounded and rose back above, reaching levels on top of 1.3520.

The common currency is struggling to hold the 1.3500 line, that according to James Chen, chief technical analyst at FX solutions is a key support “and also in the approximate vicinity of the neckline of a clear head and shoulders chart pattern, as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last bullish trend run”

He adds that the 1.3500 level currently represents a demarcation line between a bullish-biased continuation of the uptrend that has been in place since early January, and a bearish-biased breakdown of that uptrend.


Friday, February 11, 2011

What to do?

The Euro finished far from weekly highs against the Dollar but managed to end above 1.3500. The pair reached on Friday a 3-week low at 1.3496, but recovered and trimmed losses.

From Wednesday high at 1.3745 to Friday’s low fell 250 pips and for the third week in a row, EUR/USD failed to post a weekly close above 1.3650.

The Team points out that the 1.3500 is a key level, “which once broken will open the door towards a support level located at 1.3479 which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2860-1.3862 move”.

The Euro finished the week mostly higher across the board and fell, among majors, only against the Dollar and the Loonie.

Despite recent weakness, Danske Bank analysts expect the EUR/USD to rise over the year, “with the market seeming to get a bit ahead of itself in pricing in ECB hikes, and with speculative long EUR positions building, we had cautioned against a correction lower in EUR/USD. While the correction could have further to run in the near term –
particularly if risk appetite stays under pressure – we expect a widening of the EURUSD
rate spread in the medium term to send the pair to 1.45 by year-end”.


I did it!

The Dollar has eased off day highs against its main rivals after the release of a largest than expected trade deficit in the US, as the trade gap with China rises to all-time highs.

USD/JPY retreat from 83.65 high has extended about 10 pips lower to 82.45, while the EUR/USD rebond from 1.3505 session lows has extended to 1.3545, and the GBP/USD recovery from 1.5960 low has reached prices above 1.6000 to 1.6015.

US Trade deficit has widened to $40.58 billion in December, up from the 38.32 billion deficit in November. In the whole 2010 year US trade shortfall has increased by 19.7% the largest increase of the last 10 years.


... and i finally risked to buy USD and made profit


Euro recovery from Monday´s low, 1.3505 halted on Wednesday at at 1.3745, and the pair, weighed by renewed concerns about Portuguese debt, plunged on Thursday, to extend below the 20-day MA hitting fresh lows in Asia, at 1.3550.

On the downside, below 1.3550 (session low), next support levels lie at 1.3505 (Feb 7 low), and 1.3445/60 (Jan 21 lows). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.3595 (intra-day resistance), and above here, 1.3625/30 (session high/20-Day MA) and 1.3640/55 (intra-day resistance levels).

On a longer-term perspective, a weekly close below the 20-day SMA, around 1.3620, will sift the pair's bias to bearish, says Alberto Muñoz C, technical analyst at "Euro is breaking below its daily SMA 20 and oscillators are in bearish mode so a close below the current levels at the end of the US session would confirm a shift in market sentiment and a possible fall to 1.3500 or even more in the short term."


Thursday, February 10, 2011

USD getting stronger

The Greenback has been able to keep up the outstanding upward pace against the European currency, and after the latter found some support to rebound from 1.3577 lows towards 1.3637 - American session high - the cross is again under pressure at daily lows just under 1.3600 battle-line.

Technically, “EUR/USD continues to consolidate the early session move lower and once that phase has run its course, the setup calls for a fresh break lower to 1.3570/40. The H&S top pattern will still need some more time to fully develop. 1st main resistance is at 1.3655” said the 4CAST analyst team.



The greenback rose against the yen and euro today after data showed that initial US weekly jobless claims decreased by more than expected to a 2.5 year low.

The euro slipped against the dollar today as doubts over a lack of concrete policy measures to tackle the euro zone debt crisis hit sentiment and pushed peripheral debt yields up. It looks as if the market has got a bit ahead of itself with the euro as concrete policy measures to address the debt crisis are unlikely to materialize before the end of March. The single currency was down 0.6% against the US dollar at USD1.3650.
Sterling was down 0.1% against the dollar at USD1.6077 ahead of the Bank of England interest rate announcement at 1200 GMT. The currency fell briefly after the Bank of England's monetary policy committee decided to keep interest rates on hold while UK March gilt and short sterling futures edged higher. Sterling fell to a session low of USD1.6017 soon after the announcement from around USD1.6055. It recouped those losses, but was still 0.3% down for the day.

EUR/GBP rallied today to a European session high of 0.8519 in a knee-jerk reaction to the Bank of England's 12:00GMT decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.5%, with an approximate 31 pip drop to an intra-day low of 0.8477. A large 0.8475 option strike rolls off at today's 10am Eastern Time NY cut (15:00GMT).
The Swissie was soft versus the dollar and euro today ahead of Swiss consumer price data as investors' grew more confident about the global economy and invested less in safe haven currencies such as the franc. The franc was 0.3% weaker against the dollar at USD0.9607 per dollar. Swiss consumer sentiment data published today highlighted once again the healthy state of the Alpine economy as the confidence index rose to 10 points in the January from 7 points in the previous quarterly survey.

Ongoing demand for shorter dated USD/JPY upside strikes has seen 1 week 25 delta reversals paid up at 0.75 for the JPY puts this morning from 0.5 yesterday. We have also seen 1month 25 delta reversals slip back to the more familiar 0.25 for JPY calls from rates nearer 0.4 at the start of the week. The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial state jobless benefit claims fell to 383,000 in the latest week. Markets were expecting claims of 410,000.The dollar rose to 83.15 yen after the data from around 82.92 yen prior to the release.


Ups & Downs

European markets are going through losses on Thursday, with the financial sector driving losses, after Credit Suisse quarterly earnings missed forecasts. In currency markets Euro and Pound slide on risk aversion.

Eurostoxx 50 Index drops 1.13%, while the German DAX drops 0.6%, and the French CAC Index sheds 0.95%. In the UK, the FTSE Index drops 0.7% two hours after the opening bell.

Shares of Credit Suisse have dropped 2.7% after reporting a 6.1% increase on fourth quarter's net profit, to CHF841 million, below the market consensus of CHF914 million. BBVA has lost 1.2% and Societe Generale dropped 1.1%.

Euro and Pound lower

EUR/USD recovery from 1.3500 low on Monday, extended yesterday to 1.3745 high, and the pair pulled back below 1.3700 in Asia, to accelerate downtrend at European session opening, reaching session lows at 1.3615.

GBP/USD rebound from 1.6030 low yesterday extended to 1.6125, where the pair found resistance and pulled back over the Asian session, to revisit 1.6025/30 support level on early European session.

USD/JPY recovery from 81.10 low on Friday extended yesterday above 83.45 resistance area, and, after a slight pullback to 82.20, the pair rose moderately over the Asian session to reach 82.78 high on early European session.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011


The Euro rebounded at 1.3670 and jumped back above 1.3700, reaching a fresh daily high at 1.3722, the highest price since February 3. EUR/USD remains on top of 1.3700, posting the second daily gain in a row. From Monday’s low it has risen more than 200 pips.

“A continuation of the current bullishness has its upside target around the 1.3860 high reached just a week ago”, said James Chen, chief technical analyst at FX solutions. According to him a breakout of the mention highs would confirm a continuation of the uptrend that has been in place since early January “and target immediate upside resistance in the key 1.4000 psychological level”.

The common currency is also higher on Wednesday against commodity currencies and is unchanged against the Swiss Franc.


The foreign exchange market is unique because of
  • its huge trading volume, leading to high liquidity;
  • its geographical dispersion;
  • its continuous operation: 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e. trading from 20:15GMT on Sunday until 22:00 GMT Friday;
  • the variety of factors that affect exchange rates;
  • the low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income; and
  • the use of leverage to enhance profit margins with respect to account size. (Barcelona) - Euro recovery from Monday's low at 1.3505, was capped yesterday at 1.3685, right above Friday's high, and the pair has remained trading rangebound today consolidating between 1.3610 and 1.3660 on the upside.

Resistance levels lie at 1.3680/85 (Feb 4/8 highs), and above here, 1.3745 (Daily Pivot Point R2) and 1.3765 (Feb 2 low). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.3610 (Feb 3/9 lows) and below here, 1.3575/90 (Feb 8 lows), and 1.3540 (Feb 4 low).

The pair is on a downside correction, according to Peter Rosenstreich, technical analyst at ACM, likely to drop further before resumption of the broader bullish trend: " We still feel that further liquidation of speculative longs may precipitate in this downtrend before a resumption of the broader uptrend can get under way."

last trade i made yeasterday was a big fail. it was luck that i bought EUR/CHF which let me limit my loss and even make a little bit profit.

Well, after looking on todays EUR/USD price i decided not to interferin in the market. It seems like something strange is going on. Trading under this conditions would be insane just look at this

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

ohaa its falling again, time to act :)
Wow, today it was realy hard to trade. never saw the price going up and down, like it happend in the last 4 hours. Just look at this:

it is quite a challenge to tell if its going to fall/rise, therefore i am going to quit trading for today

bouth at


this is the moment i sold it, made me nearly ~3k euros
should i sell? :D

Monday, February 7, 2011

Sunday, February 6, 2011

How is the Forex Market Different?

There are some significant differences between the forex market and others like the stock market. While it may be the feeling that a good trader should be able to handle any market, the fact of the matter is that some structural differences in forex can require a different trading approach.


For most stock traders, the first difference they will notice between the forex market and equities is timeframe. Although the hours of stock trading have been expanding in recent years, the forex market is still the only one which can truly be viewed as 24-hour. There is ready forex trading activity in all time zones during the week, and sometimes even on the weekends as well. Other markets may in fact transact 24-hours, but the volume outside their primary trading day is thin and inconsistent.

No Exchanges

The lack of an exchange is probably the next big thing that sticks out as being different in forex. While it is true that there is exchange-based forex trading in the form of futures, the primary trading takes place over-the-counter via the spot market. There is no NYSE of forex.

On the largest scale, forex transactions are done in what is referred to as the inter-bank-market. That literally means banks trading with each other on behalf of their customers. Larger speculators also operate in the inter-bank market where they can execute multi-million dollar trades with ease. Individual traders, who generally trade in much smaller sizes, primarily do so through brokers and dealers.

This is something which can trouble stock traders. There is no central location for price data, and no real volume information is attainable. Since volume is an often reported figure in the stock market, the lack of it in spot forex trading is something which takes a bit of getting used to for those making the switch.

Transaction Processing

Also, the lack of an exchange means a difference in how trading is actually done. In the stock market an order is submitted to a broker who facilitates the trade with another broker/dealer (over-the-counter) or through an exchange. In spot forex much of the trading done by individuals is actually executed directly with their broker/dealer. That means the broker takes the other side of the trade. This is not always the case, but is the most common approach.

Transaction Costs

The lack of an exchange and the direct trade with the broker creates another difference between stock and forex trading. In the stock market brokers will generally charge a commission for each buy and sell transaction you do. In forex, though, most brokers do not charge any commissions. Since they are taking the other side of all the customer trades, they profit by making the spread between the bid and offer prices.

Some traders do not like the structure of the spot forex market. They are not comfortable with their broker being on the other side of their trades as they feel it presents a type of conflict of interest. They also question the safety of their funds and the lack of overall regulation. There are some worthwhile concerns, certainly, but the fact of the matter is that the majority of forex brokers are very reliable and ethical. Those that are not don't stay in business very long.

Margin Trading

The forex market is a 100% margin-based market. This is a familiar thing for those used to trading futures.

In fact, spot forex trading is essentially trading a 2-day forward (futures) contract. You do not take actual possession of any currency, but rather have a theoretical agreement to do so in the future. That puts you in a position of benefiting from prices changes. For that your broker requires a deposit on your trades to provide surety against any losses you may incur. How much of a deposit can vary. Some brokers will asked for as little as 1/2%. That is fairly aggressive, though. Expect 1%-2% on the value of the position in most cases.     

Now, unlike the stock market, margin trading does not mean margin loans. Your broker will not be lending you money to buy securities (at least not the way a stock broker does). As such, there is no margin interest charged. In fact, since you are the one putting money on deposit with your broker, you may earn interest in your margin funds.

Interest Rate Carry (Rollover)

When trading forex, one is essentially borrowing one currency, converting it in to another, and depositing it. This is all done on an overnight basis, so the trader is paying the overnight interest rate on the borrowed currency and at the same time earning the overnight rate on the currency being held. This means the trader is either paying out or receiving interest on their position, depending on whether the interest rate differential is for or against them.

This is commonly handled is what is referred to as a rollover. Spot forex trades are done on a trading day basis, and as such are technically closed out at the end of each day. If you are holding your position longer than that, your broker rolls you forward in to a new position for the next trading day. This is generally done transparently, but it does mean that at the end of each day you will either pay or receive the interest differential on your position.

The type of trader you are and the way your broker handles rollover will be the deciding factors in determining whether the interest rate differentials are an important concern for you. Some brokers will not apply the day's interest differential value on positions closed out during the trading day. By that I mean if you were to enter a position at 10am and exit at 2pm, no interest would come in to play. If you were to open a position on Monday and close it on Tuesday, though, you would have the interest for Monday applied (the full day regardless of when you entered the position), but nothing for Tuesday. (Note: There is at least one broker who calculates interest on a continuous basis, so you will always make or pay the interest differential on all positions, no matter when you put them on or took them off).

It should also be noted that although some folks will claim there is no rollover in forex futures, the interest rate spread is definitely factored in. You can see this when comparing the futures prices with the spot market rates. As the futures contracts approach their delivery date their prices will converge with the spot rate so that the holders will pay or receive the differential just as if they had been in a spot position.


Fixed income traders know that central bankers, like the Federal Reserve, are active in the markets, buying and selling securities to influence prices, and thereby interest rates. This is not something which happens in stocks, but it does in the forex markets. This is known as intervention. It happens when a central bank or other national monetary authority buys or sells currency in the market with the objective of influencing exchange rates.

Intervention is most often seen at times when exchange rates get a bit out of hand, either falling or rising too rapidly. At those times, central banks may step in to try to nullify the trend. Sometimes it works. Sometimes not.

The US has traditionally taken a hands-off approach when it comes to the value of the Dollar, preferring to allow the markets to do their thing. Others are not quite so willing to let speculators determine their currency's value. The Bank of Japan has the most active track record in that regard.    

What is Forex?

The foreign exchange market, often referred to as forex, is the market for the various currencies of the world. It is a market which, at its core, is rooted in global trade. Goods and services are exchanged 24 hours a day all over the world. Those transactions done across national borders require payments in non-domestic currencies.

For example, a US company purchases widgets from a Mexican company. To do the transaction, one of two things is going to happen. The US firm may, depending on the contract terms, make payment in Mexican Pesos. That would require a conversion of Dollars in to Pesos to make payment. Alternately, the payment could be made in Dollars, in which case the Mexican company would then exchange the Dollars for Pesos on their end. Either way, there is going to be some transaction which takes Dollars and swaps them for Pesos.

That is where the forex market comes in. Transactions like that take place all the time. The market maintains a rate of exchange between the US Dollar and the Mexican Peso (and between and amongst all other world currencies) to facilitate that activity. Consider the amount of global trade which takes place and you can see why the forex market is the biggest in the world, dwarfing all others. Literally trillions of dollars worth of forex transactions take place each and every day.
Foreign Exchange (FOREX) is the arena where a nation's currency is exchanged for that of another. The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with the equivalent of over $1.9 trillion changing hands daily; more than three times the aggregate amount of the US Equity and Treasury markets combined. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location and no central exchange (off-exchange). It operates through a global network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another. The lack of a physical exchange enables the Forex market to operate on a 24-hour basis, spanning from one zone to another in all the major financial centers.

Traditionally, retail investors' only means of gaining access to the foreign exchange market was through banks that transacted large amounts of currencies for commercial and investment purposes. Trading volume has increased rapidly over time, especially after exchange rates were allowed to float freely in 1971. Today, importers and exporters, international portfolio managers, multinational corporations, speculators, day traders, long-term holders and hedge funds all use the FOREX market to pay for goods and services, transact in financial assets or to reduce the risk of currency movements by hedging their exposure in other markets.