EUR/USD 1,3561

After the extended upside seen from 1.3485, with the breach of the 1.3500 mark signaling an open market for the upside, the EUR/USD found its high at 1.3561 before European traders going for lunch. Ahead comes the most awaited events of the day, the ADP employment and the US GDP, while the FOMC meeting will likely be a non-event.

Commerzbank analyst Lutz Karpowitz said that “if the ADP comes in surprisingly favorable (i.e. clearly above 200,000), the BLS might be “adjusted” this month”, and added that strong ADP figures today would be a positive signal for Friday’s labor-market report. Karpowitz is pessimistic about the US GDP: “After a growth rate of 3.1% (annualized rate) in the third quarter, we expect very subdued figures. The consensus expects growth of 1.1% (annualized) and our economists are even more pessimistic (+0.8%)”.

“A decisive break of the strong resistance 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) would open the way for a move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the rise from 1.2043 to 1.3172 and by the retracement to 1.2662)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar, pointing to another strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).

Greece has unveiled the details of its bond buyback plan

Greece has unveiled the details of its bond buyback plan, ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Monday. According to the document released by the Public Debt Management Agency, private investors are given the chance to swap the Greek bonds their hold for between 40.1% and 32.2% of their nominal value.

The bond buyback, on which Greece is prepared to spend 10 billion euros, is subject to a financing agreement with the EFSF, which provides funding for it. Prices of bonds vary by maturity: 38.1c for 2023, 30.2 for 2042. Investors can sign up for the buyback until December 7, while the settlement is scheduled for December 17.

The debt swap plan plan is a part of the bailout package for Greece, agreed upon at the Eurogroup meeting last week. The release of the next, 44 billion euro aid for the indebted country depends on its successful completion.

EUR/USD 1,2705

Having traded through the 1.2738 Fibonacci retracement yesterday, Commerzbank analysts await a close below this level to signal that another leg lower is underway. “This is expected to be seen shortly following the recent break down from a symmetrical triangle. The triangle break down point is expected to offer resistance at 1.2881 and we would expect prices to be contained by the near term downtrend at 1.2938”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to a downside measured target to 1.2483 (from the triangle 1.3172-1.3103) and other one at .2472 (61.8% retracement), while supports are at 1.2738 then 1.2605 (38.2% and 50% retracements).

“It should be noted that the triangle took 6 weeks to complete and this target should be achieved by year end, however it is often done so much quicker in half the time”, Jones added, expecting the EUR/USD to reach 1.2483 by the end of this month.

source: fxstreet.com

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USD/CAD beneffiting from Google TD Securities

TD Securities analysts believe the “risk off” undertone today is a resumption from yesterday's after Google's much weaker than expected earnings. “The CAD was one of the main casualties of yesterday’s late moves and it remains a notable under performer against a generally mixed USD today”, wrote analysts Shaun Osbourne and Greg Moore, allowing more CAD weakness on risk aversion.

Today's focus goes to the Canadian CPI: “Higher headline inflation is expected but core and, especially, seasonally adjusted measures are expected to show more moderate price gains”, thy added, pointing to more CAD weakness on weaker than expected data.

The pair has already got back to the high 0.98 area and trades around the 40-day MA and trend channel resistance again. “A firm close on the week—in the upper 0.98s at least would be technically constructive”, state TD Securities analysts, pointing to a break above 0.9885 to allow gains towards 0.9950.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1.3080

The Euro's decline against the Dollar from 1.3175 seems to have found support at the 1.3080 after falling around 100 pips in the American session on the back of rumours about Greece leaving the area and next election in the Hellenic country and France.

After supporting at 1.3080, the EUR/USD has been trading in a slight recovery to teach levels close to the 1.3100 zone. Currently the pair is trading at 1.3090, 0.45% below today's opening price action. Pair remains "Strongly Bearish" and "Overbought" according to FXstreet.com Technical Studies.

The single currency is being hammered just after the European close on rumours about certain Spanish banks insisting on another round of LTRO (LTRO3) and unconfirmed sources talking about the likeliness of Greece exiting the bloc.

source: fxstreet.com

The market was pricing expectations of a possible lower interest rate today, but the ECB has kept it at 1%, adding that the central bank’s officials didn’t discuss the rate at all today: “Those comments fell short of expectations for more dovish ECB language or indication that the central bank was moving closer to further easing”, wrote Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Bank, pointing to the rebound of the euro, also helping the CHF and NOK.

“ECB President Draghi said the inflation risks were broadly balanced and that risks to the economic outlook were to the downside, while he also said the central bank did not discuss a rate cut at today’s meeting”, Bennenbroek added.

In the US, initial and continuing jobless claims surprised the market with a 27k and 53k drop, respectively, now at a total of 365k and 3.276M. Falling productivity by -0.5% in Q1 (YoY) and rising labor costs by 2% were also revealed today.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,3246

Equity markets retraced losses and are edging higher on a new risk tone after digesting the Spanish rating downgrade to BBB+ by the S&P agency and the higher unemployment rate at 24.4%. The EUR/USD also bounced from its lows at 1.3157 in mid-European session and rallied up above the opening price of 1.3223 to print its high at 1.3243.

Since then, the pair has been stabilizing around the opening price, with some upside pressure as the NY session is ahead with the US GDP data due at 12:30 GMT.

“1.3250 area is providing near-term resistance for EUR/USD. We feel the euro should be sold into rallies ahead of next week’s key economic data and political events, including PMIs, ECB meeting, and the ongoing political cycle”, wrote BBH analysts headed by Marc Chandler.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1.3191

Risk sentiment continues to improve and the EUR/USD is getting closer of retracing yesterday’s losses. The American session rally pulled the pair from the opening price at 1.3155 to print a new high at 1.3218.

At the moment of writing, the EUR/USD is holding at the psychological level at 1.3200.

“A decisive close below 1.3000 is required to unlock the important multi-month reversal pattern into 1.2625 (16 Jan swing low). Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3228 (20th April high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3460-1.3497 (200-day average)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Howard Friend.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1.3320

In quiet pre-Easter trade, EUR/USD remains trapped inside past days' range with focus on the release of the US FOMC minutes to the March meeting later on the session.

EUR/USD peaked at 1.3366 during the European session but couldn't sustain gains and turned lower to hit a fresh day's low of 1.3300 into the North American return. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting at the 1.3310 zone, where it is little changed since opening.

As for technical levels, the Mataf.net analyst team sees immediate supports at 1.3290, 1.3250 and 1.3190, while they place resistances at 1.3370, 1.3385 and then at 1.3485.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD drops below 1.3300

The Euro accelerated losses against the Greenback early American session, extending its decline from a 1-week high of 1.3380 to levels below 1.3300, as comments from Fed Fisher talking down the prospects of further easing has helped to lift the USD.

EUR/USD has lost nearly a hundred pips within the last hours, breaking below the 1.3310 support level to hit a low of 1.3282 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the cross is quoting at 1.3287, 0.5% below its opening price.

In terms of technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.3270, 1.3250 and 1.3215, while resistances could be faced at 1.3310, 1.3350 and 1.3380.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,3296

EUR/USD climbed to a 1-week high of 1.3380 during the European session, but found strong resistance and was once again rejected from that area, sliding toward 1.3335 before finding support. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting at the 1.3345 area, 0.1% below its weekly opening price.

Despite several attempts within the last couple of weeks, EUR/USD has been unable to clearly overcome the 1.3380/85 zone which has been keeping the upside limited.

From a technical view, "The 4 hours chart shows indicators flat above their midlines, while price develops above 20 SMA with no much strength either side of the board", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com."The upside seems quite limited, and unless an acceleration above 1.3400, more gains seem unlikely; however if above, 1.3485 is next".

To the downside, Bednarik notes that the 1.3310 floor needs to give up to see the pair extending its slide near 1.3270.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,3032

The EUR/USD is moving away from the highs toward 1.3000. So far the Euro has been able to hold above 1.3000 but it retreated from 1.3052 and fell to 1.3002.

At the moment of writing the pair is hovering around 1.3010 as the US Dollar gains momentum across the board and trims daily losses. The pair still remains in positive territory headed toward the second daily close above 1.3000 since the beginning of 2012.

The Euro also moved off session highs versus commodity currencies and against the Pound as reports mentioned that the Eurozone and the IMF are not going to increase the bailout loan to Greece.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,2648

While markets await confirmation of the reported euro zone downgrades by Standard & Poor's, which includes France losing its AAA rating, EUR/USD consolidates losses near the bottom of today's range heading into the last hours of trading in Wall Street.

EUR/USD slumped to a fresh 16-month low of 1.2623 on the downgrade talk, and despite a limited bounce attempt it was unable to overcome the 1.2700 mark, and has spent the last hours consolidating below that level. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting around 1.2660, where it records a 1.2% loss on the day, having reversed its weekly gains to trade 0.3% below its Monday's opening.

Recently, French FinMin Baroin has confirmed France has been warned it will be downgrade by 1 notch to AA+, Le Monde reports. An official Standard & Poor's statement is expected around 21:00GMT.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,3677

The EUR/USD is plunging across the board since the Asian session, passing by the European opening and now the American. During the European session, the pair was using the 61.8% Fib from Jan-9 low as a support area, but the American session opening led the pair down to 1.3649.

At the moment of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.3682 and remains bearish, according to FxMarketAlerts Team: “It seems NY specs are behind the latest round of spot losses in EUR/USD and AUD/USD, though this will come as little surprise as they react to the news of the Greek vote of confidence, but more ominously the referendum on the new bailout package. This is effectively a vote on Euro zone membership, and has been duly taken as such, with EUR/USD looking to improve on the lows set at 1.3675 thus far".

On the upside, 1.3723 (session high) and 1.3829 (100-H4 MA), followed by 1.3900 (psychological level) may offer resistance at those areas. On the downside, support may be found at 1.3678 (200-H4 MA), followed by 1.3649 (daily low) and 1.3582 (Oct-12 low).

source: fxstreet.com

AUD/USD challenging 1.0600 resistance

After sliding 200 pips and bottoming out at 1.0503 early European session, the Australian Dollar found support and rebounded, trimming losses versus a broad-based strong Greenback.

AUD/USD bounced from the 1.0500 psychological level and rose over 100 pips toward a session high of 1.0610 before losing steam. At time of writing, the pair is quoting at the 1.0590/1.0600 zone, still down 1.0% on the day.

In terms of technical levels, if the pair manages to take out the 1.0600 area, next resistances could be found at 1.0650 and the 1.0700/10 area, while on the other hand supports might be faced at 1.0540, 1.0500 and then 1.0460.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,4498

Heading into the final hours of the trading this week, EUR/USD holds barely below 1.4500, recording a 0.79% gain on the day and the week.

The pair continued to seesaw back and forth inside its recent 1.4000/1.4500 range, although this week it held above 1.4300 and quoted nearer the topside, peeping briefly above 1.4500 on Friday boosted by a solid rally in US equities after Fed's Chairman stopped short of signaling further monetary stimulus in Jackson Hole.

Bernanke finally did not announce a third round of QE during his speech in Jackson Hole, but he didn't ruled it out either, shifting focus to September 2-day FOMC meeting.

Regarding the week ahead, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, commented, "The return of full market volume during early September may trigger some wild movements in the cross, although I would expect the 1.40/1.45 range to hold. Neither Euro nor Dollar, will gather enough strength to define a trend anytime soon".

source: fxstreet.com

S&P Cuts U.S Rating To AA+' From AAA

Despite Friday's bounce, EUR/USD is on track to close the week with losses for second time in a row as investors flied to safety favoring safe-haven assets over higher-yielding currencies over the last days.

On Friday, better-than-expected July NFP report coupled with media reports saying the European Central Bank will buy Italian bonds brought some relief to financial markets a day after Wall Street suffered its worst decline since February 2009.

EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.4260 area, up 1.2% on the day but still 0.83% below its Monday's opening. The pair had hit a weekly high at 1.4453 on Monday and a low of 1.4054 during Friday's Asian session on the back of ECB's dovish comments.

source: fxstreet.com

S&P Cuts U.S Rating To AA+' From AAA, Outlook Negative

WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Taking into account the political risks and increasing debt-burden, Standard & Poor's on late Friday downgraded U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch to 'AA+' from 'AAA' with a negative outlook. The country has been enjoying the triple A rating for the last 70 years.

The firm also removed both the short and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative as the government's passing of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 in August 2 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default. S&P also affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

Announcing the downgrade, S&P said that America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what they previously believed. The agency described the statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default as a 'political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.'

Further, S&P rating services said, 'The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to, falls short of what would necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.'

According to reports, Obama administration accused the downgrade as a result is sloppy mathematics and politically tainted assessment and said the calculations overstated future spending of $2 trillion.

The firm also warned that it could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years in case of lower-than agreed spending reduction, interest rates hike, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt.

The rating agency is of the view that the near-term progress in public spending or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely given the prolonged controversy over raising the U.S. debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate.

'The difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging,' the firm said.

Lifting the nation's borrowing limit would represent a short-term solution to the U.S debt problem. The agency has cautioned last month that a deal including drastic spending cuts may hamper the still-fragile economic recovery.

On the S&P action, the Capital economists noted that the deficit reduction package of $2.4 trillion over ten years that was signed into US law last week did not meet the $4 trillion that S&P had hoped for. They expect that the S&P rate downgrade will rock the financial markets on Monday but any spike in Treasury yields and/or fall in the dollar would be relatively short-lived.

Under the baseline upside macroeconomic assumptions of S&P, net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74 percent of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77 percent in 2015 and to 78 percent by 2021. Under the revised downside scenario, the rating agency is of the view that the net public debt burden would rise from 74 percent of GDP in 2011 to 90 percent in 2015 and to 101 percent by 2021.

The agency also noted that the government debt burden will likely be higher by 2012 and called for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure over the 10 years through 2021.

Copyright RTT News/dpa-AFX

EUR/USD 1,4399

The Euro finished on Friday around the same price level it opened Monday’s Asian session against the Dollar and ended July with a small monthly loss far from the lows.

EUR/USD jumped on Friday after the release of week economic data in the US and recovered from weekly lows at 1.4230, reaching levels above 1.4410. The pair erased weekly losses but it was unable to hold above 1.4400.

Next week will be important for markets observers: the debt ceiling in the US will be reach, the ECB and the BoE will decide on monetary policy and next Friday, the big employment report will be published in the US including the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.

These events are likely to increase volatility in the market and particularly in the EUR/USD. The Euro could come under pressure once again if the market turns its attention from the debt ceiling crisis toward the EU debt crisis, pointed out Ilian Yotov, FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex.

“The probability that the euro will reach over 1.4696 next week is extremely high, the probability that it will move above 1.4748 though is very low,” said Lara Iriarte, Director and Technical Analyst at ElliottWaveForex on its forecast. According to her the EUR/USD should find a high between those levels before turning to the downside for a new strong trend.

source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD 1,4378

The Euro weakened in the market after the opening bell at Wall Street. EUR/USD broke below 1.4355/60 and fell to 1.4335, level that is located just 10 pips above daily lows. If it falls below 1.4320 it would be trading at the lowest level since last Thursday, when the European Council announced measures to address the European debt crisis.

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com, affirms: “Lacking definition, hourly chart shows indicators flat around their midlines, while price hovers around and also flat 20 SMA. 4 hours chart shows a slightly bullish tone as per a strong 20 SMA heading north, yet only above 14440, past week high, the pair may resume its bullish tone.”

The Euro also weakened versus the Swiss Franc and reached a fresh 6-day low. EUR/CHF fell to 1.1518, rebounded and currently trades above 1.1530.

source: fxstreet.com