Sunday, July 31, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4399

The Euro finished on Friday around the same price level it opened Monday’s Asian session against the Dollar and ended July with a small monthly loss far from the lows.

EUR/USD jumped on Friday after the release of week economic data in the US and recovered from weekly lows at 1.4230, reaching levels above 1.4410. The pair erased weekly losses but it was unable to hold above 1.4400.

Next week will be important for markets observers: the debt ceiling in the US will be reach, the ECB and the BoE will decide on monetary policy and next Friday, the big employment report will be published in the US including the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.

These events are likely to increase volatility in the market and particularly in the EUR/USD. The Euro could come under pressure once again if the market turns its attention from the debt ceiling crisis toward the EU debt crisis, pointed out Ilian Yotov, FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex.

“The probability that the euro will reach over 1.4696 next week is extremely high, the probability that it will move above 1.4748 though is very low,” said Lara Iriarte, Director and Technical Analyst at ElliottWaveForex on its forecast. According to her the EUR/USD should find a high between those levels before turning to the downside for a new strong trend.


Monday, July 25, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4378

The Euro weakened in the market after the opening bell at Wall Street. EUR/USD broke below 1.4355/60 and fell to 1.4335, level that is located just 10 pips above daily lows. If it falls below 1.4320 it would be trading at the lowest level since last Thursday, when the European Council announced measures to address the European debt crisis.

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at, affirms: “Lacking definition, hourly chart shows indicators flat around their midlines, while price hovers around and also flat 20 SMA. 4 hours chart shows a slightly bullish tone as per a strong 20 SMA heading north, yet only above 14440, past week high, the pair may resume its bullish tone.”

The Euro also weakened versus the Swiss Franc and reached a fresh 6-day low. EUR/CHF fell to 1.1518, rebounded and currently trades above 1.1530.


Thursday, July 14, 2011

EUR/USD 1,4217

Euro recovery from 4-month low at 1.3835 on Tuesday extended sharply yesterday, to regain all the ground lost last week, reaching 1.4280 on early Asian session, to consolidate below here in Europe, with downside attempts contained, so far at 1.4165.

Resistance levels are 1.4280 (day high/100-day MA), and above here, 1.4370/75 (Jul 7/8 highs) and 1.4465 (Jul 6 high). On the downside, the pair has found support at 1.4165 (20-hour MA), below ere, next potential support levels lie at 1.4130 (intra-day level) and 1.4035 (intra-day level).

Technical indicators show that the pair has set a bottom at 1.3835, according to Slobodan Drvenica, analyst at Windsor Brokers: "Strong rebound from 1.3836, 12 July low, exceeded our barrier at 1.4200, to extend gain to 1.4281 so far, just under Fib 61.8% retracement of 1.4576/1.3836 downleg. This confirms temporary bottom at 1.3836 and turns near-term focus higher."